20251118-招银国际-零跑汽车-09863.HK-4Q25_NP_to_be_more_resilient_D19_key_to_FY26E_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Rating and Target Price: Maintain BUY rating; target price revised down from HK$80.00 to HK$73.00, reflecting concerns over industry sales slowdown in 2026.
3Q25 Performance:
- Revenue grew 37% QoQ to RMB19.5 billion, driven by higher average selling price, exceeding prior forecast.
- Gross margin held at 14.5%, slightly lower than expected due to missed other revenue from CO credits and service income.
- Net profit remained flat at RMB150 million, below expectations, primarily from non-auto businesses.
FY25E Forecasts:
- Sales volume projected at 0.62 million units, up 111.9% YoY; we revise up sales forecast by 20,000 units.
- Net profit expected to surge to RMB677 million in 4Q25E, up 4.5x QoQ, supported by potential CO credit income.
FY26E Projections:
- Total sales volume forecast to reach 0.94 million units, rising 52% YoY, fueled by new models like Lafa 5 and D-series/A-series launches.
- Net profit projected to jump 4x YoY to RMB3.5 billion, driven by strong sales momentum and overseas expansion.
Risks: Lower sales volume or gross margin than expected; industry-wide sales slowdown in 2026; possible sector de-rating.