20260317-招银国际-零跑汽车-09863.HK-Eyes_on_new_models,_especially_D19_5页_744kb

Leapmotor (9863 HK) Summary

Core Content

Leapmotor, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has seen strong growth in its financial performance, particularly in revenue and gross profit margin. The company's 4Q25 earnings were largely in line with expectations, with a 56% year-over-year (YoY) increase in revenue to RMB21bn and a gross margin (GPM) of 15.1%, reaching a historical high. However, net profit was slightly lower than expected at RMB355mn, which is still positive for three consecutive quarters.

Main Points

• 4Q25 Earnings Overview:

  • Revenue increased by 56% YoY to RMB21bn, slightly below the prior forecast.
  • GPM reached a historical high of 15.1%, in line with projections.
  • Vehicle GPM was slightly lower than expected at ~12%.
  • Net profit was RMB355mn, 68mn lower than the prior forecast, but still positive for three quarters.

• Sales Volume Forecast:

  • Maintained FY26E sales volume forecast at 0.9mn units.
  • The D19 SUV and D99 MPV are expected to contribute 0.1mn units combined.
  • A-series models may drive higher sales volume, but D-series is crucial for improving margins and valuation.

• Other Revenue Streams:

  • Revenue from R&D support, CO₂ credits, and component sales is expected to be RMB3.5bn with a blended GPM of 70%.
  • This is anticipated to contribute significantly to FY26E net profit and provide a positive surprise in FY26-27E.
  • Joint venture with Stellantis (STLA US, NR) is expected to contribute meaningful profit from FY27E, offsetting lower GPM from overseas sales.

• Valuation and Target Price:

  • Revised FY26E and FY27E net profit forecasts by 20% and 2%, respectively, to RMB3.6bn and RMB4.6bn.
  • Maintained BUY rating but reduced target price from HK$73.00 to HK$60.00, based on a 21x FY26E P/E ratio.
  • Changed valuation method from P/S to P/E due to the positive net profit outlook.
  • Target price corresponds to 16x FY27E P/E.

Key Financial Highlights

Key Risks

• Lower-than-expected sales or GPM could negatively impact the rating and target price.
• Sector de-rating is a risk factor affecting the valuation.
• Market sentiment and external factors could influence the company's performance.

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Mr. Jiangming Zhu and his concert party: 24.0%
  • Stellantis N.V.: 20.0%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: HK$63,356.0 million
  • Average 3-month turnover: HK$369.0 million
  • 52-week High/Low: HK$73.50 / HK$38.26
  • Total Issued Shares: 1,421.8 million

Analysts and Contact

• Analysts:
  • Wenjing DOU, CFA: (852)69394751, douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk
  • Ji SHI, CFA: (852) 3761 8728, shiji@cmbi.com.hk
  • Austin Liang: (852) 3900 0856, austinliang@cmbi.com.hk

CMBIG Ratings

Disclaimer

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