2025-06-16-世界银行-蒙古经济更新_2025年5月_在风险中建立韧性（英）_50页_4mb

MONGOLIA ECONOMIC UPDATE Summary

1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• GDP Growth: 5% in 2024 (down from 7.2% in 2023), projected to grow 6.3% in 2025. Agriculture was severely impacted by dzuds, while mining and services drove growth.
• Inflation: Averaged 6.2% in 2024, surging to 9.1% by March 2025, driven by cost-push factors like lower livestock supply and energy tariffs.
• Fiscal Balance: Surplus narrowed to 1.3% of GDP in 2024, pushed toward a 1.1% deficit in 2025 due to high spending despite weak revenues.
• External Balance: Current account deficit widened to 9.3% of GDP in 2024, exacerbated by declining mineral prices and rising imports.
• Key Risks: Global uncertainty, high household debt, and climate events are major challenges.
• 2025 Projections: Growth expected at 6.3%, supported by copper production and agriculture recovery, but hindered by inflation and reduced FDI.

2. Disaster Risk Management (DRM)

• Current State: Minimum 10% of livestock insured (too low), institutional frameworks exist but implementation is weak.
• Key Gaps: Limited ex-ante financing, insufficient disaster risk insurance market, and inadequate urban infrastructure.
• Recommendations: Strengthen DRM legal frameworks, invest in resilient infrastructure, improve early warning systems, and adopt hybrid financing tools like Cat DDOs for disaster response.