2025-06-16-美联储-黑天鹅与金融稳定_建立韧性的框架（英）_43页_446kb

Black Swans and Financial Stability: A Framework for Building Resilience

Authors: Daniel Barth, Stacey Schreft
Source: Federal Reserve Staff Discussion Paper, 2025
Key Points:

1. Definition of Black Swans:

   • A black swan is an unknown unknown event (fundamentally unknowable) with high impact.
   • Distinguished from grey swans (known unknowns) and white swans (known knowns).

2. Complex Adaptive System (CAS):

   • The modern financial system is a CAS, making it vulnerable to unforeseeable crises.
   • Resilience must focus on withstanding shocks despite the unpredictability of black swans.

3. Resilience Principle:

   • Policies should be:
     • Adaptable: Respond automatically to changing conditions.
     • Universal: Apply broadly across markets and entities.
     • Systemic: Address the financial system as a whole to avoid catastrophic failure.

4. Policy Examples:

   • Automatic Stabilizers: Rules-based mechanisms like circuit breakers and swing pricing.
   • Buffers: Capital and liquidity buffers for emergency support.
   • Backstops: Guarantees and operational support as a last resort.

5. Role of Official Sector:

   • The official sector (governments, central banks) must lead resilience-building due to its size and coordination ability.
   • Policies should not rely on superior prediction but on absorbing shock impacts.

Conclusion:

• Black swans cannot be prevented but their impact can be mitigated through resilient policies.
• Adherence to the resilience principle ensures the financial system withstands both known and unknown crises.