哈佛-中国的债务外交（英文版）-2018.5-64页-7mb

Debtbook Diplomacy: China's Strategic Leveraging of Economic Influence and U.S. Foreign Policy Implications

Core Content

This report explores the concept of "debtbook diplomacy", a strategy by which China leverages its extensive lending and investment in developing countries to gain strategic influence and assets. The authors, Sam Parker and Gabrielle Chefitz, identify 16 countries that are particularly vulnerable to this strategy, grouped into three categories: Debtbook West/String of Pearls, Debtbook South/SCS Influence, and Debtbook East/Second Island Chain and Beyond. The analysis aims to understand how this strategy impacts U.S. strategic interests and what measures the U.S. can take to counter it.

Main Points

1. What is Debtbook Diplomacy?

• Definition: A coercive strategy where China uses accumulated debt from infrastructure projects to gain strategic assets or political influence.
• Mechanism: Involves a three-phase cycle: investment, construction and operation, and debt collection.
• Strategic Goals:
  • String of Pearls: Expand China's naval presence in the Indian Ocean to counter U.S. dominance.
  • South China Sea (SCS) Influence: Undermine U.S.-led coalitions opposing China's claims.
  • Second Island Chain: Enable the Chinese navy to project power into the open Pacific.

2. U.S. Interests at Risk

• Strategic Balance: China's growing influence in South Asia and the Pacific could shift the balance of power away from the U.S.
• Key Partners: China's financial leverage threatens U.S. influence with allies like Pakistan and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs).
• Trade and Energy Security: China's focus on securing alternative energy routes and trade access challenges U.S. control over critical maritime corridors.
• U.S.-India Relations: India's strategic alignment with the U.S. is crucial to countering China's influence.
• Rule of Law: China's disregard for international legal norms, such as the UN tribunal ruling on SCS claims, threatens the legitimacy of the rules-based international order.
• Human Rights: China's condition-free financing undermines U.S. efforts to promote human rights and good governance.

3. Criteria for Strategic Vulnerability

The report uses five criteria to assess which countries are most at risk from debtbook diplomacy:

1. Strategic Desirability for China:

   • Geographic location (e.g., Strait of Malacca, Second Island Chain)
   • Access to ports, bases, or natural resources
   • Diplomatic value (e.g., ASEAN voting rights)

2. Strategic Value for the U.S.:

   • Proximity to key trade routes or military bases
   • Support for U.S. initiatives and operations
   • Role in regional alliances (e.g., ASEAN)

3. Long-Term Debt Trends:

   • Total debt, maturity schedule, and financial health
   • Loans specifically to China or Chinese-controlled entities
   • Viability of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects

4. Debtbook Progression:

   • Project announcement, loan agreement, construction, operation, and potential debt-for-equity swap

5. Balance of Relations:

   • Existing treaties and military cooperation
   • Satisfaction with U.S. partnership vs. China's influence
   • Signs of foreign policy reevaluation (e.g., expiration of Compact of Free Association funding)

4. Key Countries and Their Vulnerability Scores

5. U.S. Recommendations

To counter the effects of debtbook diplomacy, the report proposes three sets of recommendations:

1. Targeting and Streamlining Investment:

   • Consolidate U.S. development agencies like OPIC and USAID's Development Credit Authority into a single entity.
   • Encourage joint investment ventures with allies.
   • Focus U.S. resources on areas of comparative advantage, such as digital infrastructure.

2. Strengthening Alliances:

   • Bolster India's role as a regional leader.
   • Revitalize the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) as a rules-based coalition.
   • Enhance economic and maritime security cooperation among members.

3. Managing Debt Burdens:

   • Use tariff relief and support for AIIB as bargaining chips to encourage responsible lending.
   • Support debt assistance and best practices through multilateral institutions like the World Bank.

Conclusion

China's debtbook diplomacy is a growing challenge to U.S. strategic interests, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. must address this issue through coordinated investment, strengthened alliances, and effective debt management. The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to reassess its strategic priorities and allocate resources more efficiently to counter China's influence.