哈佛大学-中国的借贷战略和对美国外交政策影响-2018.07-64页-7mb

Debtbook Diplomacy Summary

Core Content

This report explores the concept of "debtbook diplomacy" as a strategic tool used by China to leverage its growing economic influence in developing countries. The authors argue that this approach, which involves offering large-scale loans and infrastructure investments, has the potential to create strategic dependencies and influence political and military dynamics in key regions. The report identifies 16 countries that are at risk of becoming strategic assets for China through this method and outlines U.S. strategic interests and recommendations for countering the effects of debtbook diplomacy.

Main Points

China's Strategic Objectives

• String of Pearls: To secure strategic ports and bases in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, addressing its "Malacca Dilemma" and enhancing naval power projection.
• South China Sea (SCS) Influence: To undermine U.S.-led coalitions opposing China's territorial claims and gain proxy support within ASEAN.
• Second Island Chain: To enable the Chinese Navy to extend its reach into the Pacific, challenging U.S. naval dominance.

U.S. Interests at Risk

• Strategic Balance: China's growing influence threatens U.S. naval dominance in key regions.
• Allied Relationships: U.S. economic and diplomatic leverage with key partners like Pakistan and Pacific Island Countries (PICs) could be undermined.
• Trade and Energy Security: China's control over strategic ports could disrupt global trade routes and energy markets.
• U.S.-India Relations: Strengthening U.S.-India ties is crucial for countering China's expansionist ambitions.
• Rule of Law: China's disregard for international law undermines the legitimacy of the U.S.-led rules-based order.
• Human Rights: China's economic influence may insulate countries from international pressure to improve governance and human rights.

Key Countries and Vulnerability Assessment

Recommendations for the U.S.

1. Target and Streamline Investment

   • Consolidate the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and USAID's Development Credit Authority (DCA) into a single entity to better coordinate U.S. private-public partnerships.
   • Recruit allies into joint investment ventures to counter China's influence.
   • Focus U.S. investments on areas of comparative advantage, such as digital infrastructure.

2. Strengthen Alliances

   • Bolster India's role as a regional leader and revitalize the Quad (U.S.-India-Japan-Australia) as a rules-based coalition.
   • Enhance economic and maritime security cooperation among Quad members.

3. Manage Debt Burdens

   • Leverage tariff relief and support for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to encourage responsible lending from China.
   • Engage in initiatives like the Paris Club and the G20's Sustainable Financing Agenda.
   • Provide support for debt assistance and best practices through multilateral institutions like the World Bank.

Strategic Outlook

• Debtbook West (String of Pearls): Countries like Pakistan, Djibouti, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar are at high risk of becoming strategic assets for China.
• Debtbook South (SCS Influence): Cambodia, Laos, and the Philippines may enable China to gain influence in ASEAN, weakening U.S. diplomatic leverage.
• Debtbook East (Second Island Chain): The Compact of Free Association (COFA) states are at risk due to expiring U.S. aid, potentially leading to increased Chinese influence and undermining U.S. basing rights and strategic denial capabilities.

Conclusion

Debtbook diplomacy represents a new phase in China's geoeconomic strategy, with significant implications for U.S. foreign policy and global stability. The U.S. must act decisively to counter this trend by strengthening alliances, streamlining investment, and managing debt-related risks. Addressing the long-term strategic implications of this approach will be crucial in maintaining a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region.