2025-06-05-Jefferies-Zscaler（ZS）_SASE的客户首选_12页_457kb

报告摘要

Summary of Zscaler (ZS) and Related Investment Analysis

Core Content and Key Information

Zscaler (ZS) was a notable focus at ZS' Zenith Live '25 in Las Vegas, where the company announced a range of updates and continued to emphasize its SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) and Zero Trust offerings. The event showcased strong channel and customer sentiment, with ZS being seen as a must-have solution in the enterprise space, demonstrating positive momentum and growth potential.

Market Position and Competitive Dynamics

ZS is the leading enterprise solution for cloud-based network security, followed by Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
Both companies are experiencing healthy market momentum, with ZS maintaining a strong presence in SASE and Zero Trust.
ZS continues to refine its go-to-market strategy, with a focus on enterprise penetration, new product categories, and channel leverage.

Product and Technology Highlights

ZIA and ZPA remain core products with strong demand.
ZDX is gaining traction, showing incremental growth year-over-year.
Z-Flex, a new flexible consumption model, is in its early stages, with large and strategic customers expected to be the first to adopt it.
Red Canary acquisition is aimed at enhancing data security and Agentic AI capabilities, enabling ZS to expand into SIEM and SOC automation.
ZS has a large enterprise customer base, and the company is focused on monetizing data to create a more comprehensive security operations offering.

Financial Overview

Revenue growth has been consistently strong, with a $60B TAM estimated in CY23.
Non-GAAP financials show improving margins and increasing profitability.
FY26 revenue is projected to be $3,149.4 million, with FCF margins expected to trend upwards.
The current price target is $350, implying a 19x EV/CY25E revenue multiple, which the analysts believe is justified by ZS' large and growing TAM and enterprise exposure.

Valuation and Risks

ZS is currently trading at 13x CY26 revenue, which is lower than some peers like Snowflake (SNOW) at 14x and Cloudflare (CF) at 12x.
The base case DCF model projects $350 as the price target, with downside risks including slow market adoption of past security purchases.
Upside scenarios involve stronger-than-expected adoption of cloud-based solutions and higher-than-expected FCF margins.
Downside scenarios include lower-than-expected growth and margin compression.

Sustainability and ESG Considerations

Energy management is a key focus for ZS, as cloud-based services increase data center demand, which in turn raises energy and water consumption.
ZS aims to reach net zero emissions by 2025.
Analysts have raised questions about employee engagement, diversity, and inclusion initiatives to address skills shortages in the cybersecurity industry.

Investment Thesis

ZS is positioned to disrupt multiple IT markets due to its scalable architecture and software-based model.
The company is early in monetizing its TAM and has strong upside potential.
The long-term vision includes data security everywhere and AI-driven security operations.

Key Points and Main Views

ZS is the clear leader in the enterprise SASE and Zero Trust market, with PANW as the second most preferred vendor.
The Red Canary acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance data security and AI capabilities, not to expand into services.
Z-Flex is a new model for flexible consumption, targeting enterprise clients.
ZS is experiencing strong subscription growth and improving FCF margins, which support its premium valuation.
Valuation risks include market digestion delays, growth slowdown, and margin compression.
Sustainability is a growing concern, with a 2025 net zero goal and a focus on energy efficiency.
ESG is a key consideration, especially in diversity and inclusion and employee engagement.

Summary of Analysts

Joseph Gallo – Equity Analyst
Annick Baumann – Equity Associate
Anjali Papadopoulos – Equity Associate

All analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.

Conclusion

ZS is well-positioned for long-term growth in the cloud and security space, with strong momentum and strategic acquisitions supporting its market leadership. The investment thesis is based on its scalable architecture, enterprise exposure, and data monetization potential. Analysts maintain a Buy rating with a price target of $350, though risks such as market adoption and competition must be monitored.