2025-05-22-Jefferies-Zscaler（ZS）_SASE的发展势头应带来良好的业绩表现_14页_826kb

Summary of Zscaler (ZS) Equity Research

Ratings and Price Target

• Rating: Buy
• Previous Rating: Buy (as of rating history)
• Price Target: $295 (up 17% from current price, implied 16x EV/CY25E revenue)
• Discussions: Analyst views are primarily positive, highlighting strong demand and growth potential.

Growth Prospects

• Zscaler is expected to beat FY25 revenue guidance due to robust SASE momentum and better-than-expected new business growth.
• Target: Billings growth is projected at low-to-mid 20s for FY25, with potential 18% YoY revenue growth for FY26.
• Recommendations: Continued progress toward guidance could lead to an upside scenario price target of $348 (based on a 19x EV/CY25 revenue valuation).

Financial Highlights

• Revenue Trends: Achievable range for F3Q billings is $760M (+21% YoY growth). Expect low-to-mid 20s billings growth in FY25.
• Profitability: Non-GAAP op margin guidance for F3Q is 21.2%, with projected improvements throughout the year.
• Valuation: Current PT implies 16x CY26E revenue valuation, justified by large TAM (estimated $60B in CY23) in enterprise security.

Competitive Edge

• ZScaler and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are dominant in Enterprise SASE; ZS has HSD federal exposure driven by cloud-based solutions.
• Competitive pressure from NET and Netskope noted in specific segments, while PANW saw 36% YoY SASE ARR growth.

Risks

• Markets may underperform expectations in absorbing past security investments. Federal headwinds could impact growth trajectory mid-cycle.
• Sales productivity improvements are expected, but investments could pressure FCF margins.

Other Key Points

• ESG Factors: Focus on sustainability includes net-zero emissions by 2025, and reduced environmental footprint through cloud solutions.
• Upcoming Catalysts: Continued trend in distributed workforce monetization, adoption of cloud products, and product innovation.

Summary Conclusion
The research highlights ZScaler's strong position in SASE, high growth potential, and resilience, supported by a positive outlook. However, risks from slow adoption or macro pressures, such as tighter lending conditions, could influence performance.