2025-06-04-Jefferies-天空中发生了什么_全球航班同比增长3_目前比2019年水平低2_33页_457kb

The Jefferies equity research report focuses on Air Traffic and Capacity Changes as of June 4, 2025, analyzing global flight volumes, regional trends, and key drivers influencing the aerospace sector.

Global scheduled flights are up 3% year-over-year but remain 2% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, with capacity on an ASM basis increasing 5% year-over-year and now 8% above 2019 levels, driven by Africa (+15%) and South America (+12%) leading the rebound. Weak markets include Central America (down 15% from 2019), North America (-4%), and Europe (-3%), while Middle East and Africa show strong year-over-year growth.

Key regions include Asia, where domestic flights are 11% above 2019 levels, bolstered by China's recovery despite subdued international flights. North America faces challenges in Canada and Europe, with issues like staff shortages and strikes impacting performance. The Middle East and Africa demonstrate robust growth, aided by factors like labor conditions and tourism recovery.

Notable economic factors include the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index indicating a potential recession in the US, with high expectations for consumer spending and government activity tying airlines to cautious capacity growth. In May-June 2025, US flights rose 4% year-over-year, though continuing to lag pre-pandemic volumes.

Cargo transportation has rebounded strongly, with cargo flights up 42% vs. 2019, particularly in North America and Asia, showing resilience in e-commerce and logistics.

Overall, the report highlights ongoing, uneven global recovery as carriers adapt to post-COVID demand patterns and face macroeconomic headwinds.