2025-06-11-花旗集团-伊登瑞德（EDEN）_伊登瑞德（EDEN.PA）模型更新_11页_370kb

Citigroup Analysis Summary: Edenred (EDEN.PA)

• Model Update: Forecast for FY25-27 revenues and EBITDA slightly reduced due to foreign exchange headwinds (TRY, MXN, BRL) and lower global fuel prices, partially offset by improved margins.
• Rating and Target Price: Neutral recommendation unchanged, target price set at €33 (12 June 2025 price: €26.04), with expected share price return of 26.7%, dividend yield of 3.8%, and total return of 30.6%.
• Financial Projections: Revenue growth projected from €2,856m in 2024 to €3,317m by 2027. Net income expected to rise from €526m in 2024 to €759m in 2027, with EPS increasing to €3.07 by 2027. EBITDA margin is forecast to improve to 46.6% in 2027.
• Valuation: Target price justified by DCF analysis using a 3% long-term growth rate and 11% WACC, adjusted for net debt. Alternative valuation via EV/EBITDA multiple supports the €33 target.
• Risks: Target price may rise if revenues/earnings exceed expectations, but could fall due to slower-than-projected growth or adverse regulatory developments, such as changes in employee benefits tax treatment or market share shifts.