2022-05-18-克而瑞-百城去化周期超2年_华南三四线半数承压超30个月VF_8页_1mb

Summary of克而瑞研究中心企业年报 2022-05

Overview

As of April 2022, the real estate market showed a downturn with increased supply but declining sales, leading to higher inventory levels and prolonged sales cycles. Despite market attempts to recover through various policies, sales stagnation continued due to factors like widespread COVID-19 disruptions. Inventory levels rose slightly, with the narrow-sense inventory reaching 6.08 billion square meters and the sales cycle extending to 24.78 months. This overview provides a concise analysis of key findings, regional impacts, and future outlook from the Creasia Research Center report.

Key Findings

• Inventory Levels: The narrow-sense inventory (unsold residential areas) increased to 6.08 billion square meters, up 1% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year. This brought the average sales cycle to 24.78 months (up from 22.58 months in March), indicating a significant backlog. Broad-sense inventory (inclusive of land-related metrics) remained high at 38.4 billion square meters, unchanged month-over-month but slightly down year-over-year.
• Market Dynamics: Supply increased moderately but sales declined due to weak demand and policy inefficiencies, including unresolved issues in several cities. This resulted in continued oversupply and inventory accumulation.
• Regional Analysis: Inventory pressure is concentrated in weak二线 and三四线 cities, particularly those with historical inventory issues or recent demand booms. Notable cities include Qingdao and Wuhan for total inventory growth, while weaker cities like Yancheng saw massive inventory increases (e.g., 266% year-over-year) due to short-term sales dips. In Hainan, cities like Shenzhen experienced high sales cycle growth (up to 147% year-over-year), straining markets.

Regional Outlook

• Dichotomies by Tier:一线 cities showed modest relief with inventory declines, but三四线 cities face severe challenges, with many sales cycles exceeding 30 months (e.g., Zhongshan at 30 months, Dalian at 5 months but high risk). Core coastal cities like those in southeast China are key players, but demand decline in weak cities amplifies risks.
• Specific Risks: Cities like Harbin, Changchun, and Zhengzhou face high inventory risks due to halted market activities from COVID and weak recovery signals. Long-term risks are prevalent in population-draining三四线 cities, where inventory can be above 45 months, exceeding demand even without supply increases.

Future Predictions

• Short-term recovery hinges on effective epidemic control and policy stimulus. If implemented, core cities could lead a rebound by Q3 2022. However, reliance on demand from stronger metro areas may delay三四line recovery. Weak areas with deficient fundamentals are unlikely to recover quickly, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate long-term inventory risks.

This summary captures the essence of the report, highlighting market vulnerabilities and potential recovery paths without excessive detail.