20251128-华泰期货-化工日报_本周EG主港延续累库_9页_2mb

报告摘要

EG Market Analysis Summary: 2025-11-28

Core View

Ethylene Glycol (EG) markets show continued inventory accumulation in the main port region. Prices have retreated, with EG主力合约 closing at 3873元/吨, down 0.59% from the previous day, and华东现货 at 3889元/吨. Production margins remain negative, particularly for coal-based processes, indicating financial pressure.

Market Analysis

Price and Basis: Recent trading reflects downward momentum. Changes in EG主力合约 and华东现货 highlight weaker demand, with only slight adjustments in seasonal factors.
Production Profit: Margins for key processes are deeply negative, with乙烯制EG at -60美元/吨 and煤基合成气制EG at -1027元/吨, reflecting no improvement in recent weeks.
Inventory:华东主港库存 stands at 73.2万吨, stable relative to inflows, but a planned arrival of 9.5万吨 this week could drive further accumulation. Real-time data shows an increase of 3.95万吨 from the prior week.
Supply and Demand: Supply side features high utilization levels, with potential cuts in short-process plants. Demand from polyesters remains supported, but order volumes are declining, easing some negative trends.

Strategy

The market outlook is neutral due to rising inventory and falling prices. Further increases could relieve some cost pressures, but prices are near two-year lows. No recommended cross-market opportunities at this time.