20251212-华泰期货-化工日报_EG主港延续累库_负荷下降_9页_2mb

EG MEG Market Analysis Summary - 2025-12-12

Market Overview

• Supply: Domestic EG production load peaked but is easing due to maintenance; however, a return to high supply is expected in January, adding pressure. ME库存 is rising, with ongoing imports from the Middle East.
• Demand: Poly酯 load remains strong, but order book weakening marginally. Overall market sentiment neutral.

Key Data

• Prices:
  • EG主力合约: 3599元/吨, down 2.25%.
  • EG华东现货: 3613元/吨, down 1.50%.
  • Spot basis: -15元/吨.
• Production Profit:
  • Ethylene-based EG: -$94/t, stable monthly.
  • Coal-based EG: -$1104/t, increased by 52元.
• Inventory: MEG华东主港 inventory at 75.5万吨 (up 3.6万吨), with higher arrival forecasts.

Strategy

• Single-side market is neutral, with supply-driven risks; suggest caution as inventory build persists into January.
• No cross-commodity or inter-contract strategies recommended.

Risks

• Market risks include volatility in crude oil and coal prices; macroeconomic shocks; and geopolitical events could alter supply-demand balances.