20240519-广发期货-焦煤焦炭周报_钢厂复产逻辑延续_双焦偏强走势_37页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report

Overall Market View: The report highlights the continuation of steel mill resumption and increased production, leading to a bullish outlook for both coking coal and coke (double weakness and strong demand). Market dynamics are driven by supply constraints and robust demand recovery.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
- Coking Coal: Supply is weak due to controlled production, with high import volumes maintaining pressure; demand remains strong from resuming steel mills, with iron water output rising significantly. Total inventories moderately increased, but inventory levels remain low, causing uncertainty in supply growth.
- Coke: Supply improved as profits are positive, with daily output increasing slightly; demand is supported by accelerated steel production. Total inventories decreased slightly, with strong industry data suggesting no supply excess that could trigger a sharp downturn.
Opinions and Recommendations: Based on current trends and the potential for price increases, the report suggests an upward trajectory for prices, supported by data on steel production and market sentiment. For operations, recommend buying at low levels with caution.
Market Actions:
- Coking Coal: Recommended to buy at support levels around 1900, watching for pressure near 2030.
- Coke: Advised to buy low around 2430, with resistance at 2620 in the chart view.
Key Observations: Both commodities show themes of gradual resumption and demand strength, but with ongoing uncertainties, including inventory expectations and external factors like real estate market rumors.
Disclaimer: This report's content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks exist, and users are reminded to consult reliable sources and manage risks carefully.