2014年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Economic_Aspects_of_Turkeys_Quest_for_EU_Membership_10页_212kb

Summary of Economic Aspects of Turkey's Quest for EU Membership

Introduction

The EU has initiated membership negotiations with Turkey in 2005, and while accession is expected, it will not occur quickly. The most likely date is 2015. The economic implications of Turkey's accession are significant, as it is seen as a potential 'just another enlargement' in some respects but presents unique challenges in others. Turkey's economy shares similarities with Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) in terms of GDP per capita and agricultural employment, but also has distinct features such as advanced trade integration, low human capital, and a dynamic demographic profile.

1. Financial Cost of Membership

• EU Budgetary Impact: The financial cost of Turkey's accession is expected to be relatively modest, with estimates suggesting a maximum net cost of around 0.20% of EU GDP (approximately €20 billion).
• Structural Funds: Turkey's share in Structural Funds is estimated at 0.16% of EU GDP.
• Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): The CAP-related costs are estimated at 0.08% of EU GDP.
• Total Cost: Combined, these would amount to about 0.25% of EU GDP.
• Contribution to EU Budget: Turkey would contribute 1.2% of its own GDP, which would be about 0.05% of EU GDP.
• Net Cost: The net cost would thus be around 0.20% of EU GDP.

2. Trade Integration and the EU-Turkey Customs Union

• Customs Union: Turkey has already established a customs union with the EU, which has significantly increased its trade openness.
• Openness to Trade: Turkey's exports as a share of GDP increased from 5% in the 1980s to about 30% in recent years, similar to Spain.
• EU Trade Dependency: Despite this, Turkey's trade dependency on the EU is lower than that of some new member states, such as Poland, due to its geographical distance and less concentrated trade patterns.

3. Human Capital and Demographic Dynamics

Demographic Growth

• Population Growth: Turkey's population has grown rapidly, doubling over the last 30 years and is projected to grow by 25% in the next two decades.
• Demographic Bonus: The working-age population is growing faster than the total population, providing a significant demographic bonus.
• Employment Rate: However, the employment rate in Turkey is lower than in new member states, with only 28% of the working-age population employed in 2002.

Education and Human Capital

• Investment in Education: Turkey invests less in education compared to both the EU-15 and new member states.
• Educational Attainment: Only 24.3% of adults in Turkey have upper secondary education, compared to higher rates in other countries.
• Convergence Challenges: The low level of human capital accumulation may hinder Turkey's ability to converge with the EU economically.

Economic Duality

• Sectoral Productivity: Turkey's economy is dualistic, with a low-productivity agricultural sector and a modern industrial and service sector.
• Productivity Levels: The modern sector in Turkey is comparable to or even more productive than that of new member states.
• Regional Disparities: The modern sector is concentrated in western regions, leading to significant regional inequalities.

4. Long-Term Growth Prospects

• Growth Potential: Turkey has the potential for strong growth, but this has been hampered by macroeconomic instability.
• Demographic Advantage: The increasing proportion of the working-age population could boost GDP per capita by 1.5% annually.
• Labour Force Expansion: A third of the currently underemployed rural workforce could transition to higher-productivity sectors, adding about 10% to the overall workforce and contributing to GDP growth.
• Female Labour Participation: Increasing female participation in the workforce could add another 1% to GDP per capita growth.
• Technology Transfer: With increased FDI and technology transfer, total factor productivity is expected to rise, further supporting growth.

5. Migration

• Migration Concerns: The potential for a large influx of Turkish migrants into the EU is a significant issue, particularly due to the existing large Turkish diaspora in Germany.
• Current Migration Flow: Even without formal worker mobility, there is a substantial net migration flow.
• Impact on EU: This could affect the EU's social and economic policies, especially in relation to the CAP and social integration.

Key Similarities and Differences

• Similar to CEECs: Turkey's GDP per capita and agricultural employment are similar to CEECs, but its economy is more integrated with the EU through trade.
• Human Capital Gap: Turkey lags behind in human capital accumulation, which could affect its long-term growth and convergence with the EU.
• Demographic Edge: Turkey's demographic dynamics provide a significant advantage in terms of potential GDP growth compared to the EU-15 and other CEECs.

Conclusion

Turkey's accession to the EU presents both opportunities and challenges. While the financial cost is relatively low, the country's economic duality and low human capital accumulation may pose long-term convergence issues. However, its dynamic demography and potential for expanding the workforce into higher-productivity sectors could support significant growth. The success of Turkey's accession will depend on its ability to address these challenges and fully integrate into the EU's economic structures.