2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Political_and_Economic_Governance_in_the_Balkans_and_Eastern_Europe_Compared_30页_1mb

Summary of "Political and Economic Governance in the Balkans and Eastern Europe Compared"

Core Content

This paper compares the political and economic governance quality of the Western Balkans (non-EU member states) and the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries – Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine – which have Association Agreements with the EU, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Both regions share aspirations for EU membership, but the EU has differentiated between them, offering a 'European perspective' to the Western Balkans while not to the EaP countries. Despite this, the commitments of both groups to adopt EU standards and laws are similar, making the comparison both feasible and politically relevant.

Main Points

1. EU Membership Prospects and Governance

• The EU has established a three-tier system for assessing accession prospects in the Western Balkans:

  • Tier 1: Montenegro and Serbia (front-runners)
  • Tier 2: Albania and Macedonia
  • Tier 3: Bosnia and Kosovo, with Turkey in a similar position

• Georgia is slightly ahead of the Balkan tier 1 countries, while Moldova and Ukraine are comparable to the Balkan tier 2 countries and more advanced than the tier 3 states.

• The EU's membership perspective is not consistently driving democratic reforms in the Western Balkans. Despite early progress, many countries have experienced democratic backsliding over the past decade.

• Russia has played a significant role in undermining pro-EU reforms in the Western Balkans, while the DCFTA countries have shown greater resilience and democratic progress, even in the face of Russian pressure.

• The EU's image is generally more positive in the EaP countries than in the Western Balkans, although Kosovo and Albania are the most pro-EU states in the Balkans. In the EaP, the EU is associated with political values like democracy, human rights, and rule of law.

2. Political Governance Indicators

• Democracy scores show that the Western Balkans have seen a decline in political governance over the past decade, with Georgia being the only country in the region that has improved its score.
• Corruption levels are generally high in the Western Balkans, with Georgia performing significantly better than its regional peers and even the Balkan EU member states.
• Rule of Law rankings reveal that Georgia is among the best in the region, while Moldova and Ukraine are comparable to Serbia, which is not the regional leader.

3. Economic Development and Governance

• GDP per capita (PPP-adjusted) in the Western Balkans is roughly one-third of the EU28 average, while the DCFTA economies are at one-fifth of that average.
• Since the end of the communist era in 1990, the Western Balkans have experienced less severe economic shocks compared to the post-Soviet states, which explains their better economic performance.
• The DCFTA countries have had poor economic performance, especially Ukraine, due to:
  • Vulnerability of its industrial structure to the collapse of the Soviet economy
  • Loss of key supply chain linkages to Russian industry
  • Economic governance issues and resistance to reform
• Albania and Turkey have shown significant economic convergence, while Macedonia and Belarus have remained relatively stable.

4. Policy Implications

• The paper suggests that the EU's current enlargement and neighbourhood policies are outdated and may not be effective in driving reform.
• It presents three policy alternatives for the EU:
  1. Extend the membership perspective to the EaP countries, making the policy more consistent.
  2. Maintain current political positions but quietly develop common policy instruments for both regions.
  3. Create a new tier of European integration, such as a Wider European Economic Area, to accommodate different levels of progress.

Key Information

• The EU's credibility as a democracy promoter has been affected by democratic backsliding within its own borders, particularly in Hungary and Poland.
• Domestic political actors in the Western Balkans have used the EU's reluctance to apply negative conditionality to resist democratic reforms.
• The EU's image is more positive in the EaP countries, especially among younger, more educated, and socially higher-status citizens.
• The DCFTA countries have made significant strides in political and economic governance, even though they are not EU members, and are more advanced than the Western Balkans in some respects.

Conclusion

The paper highlights a notable divergence between the Western Balkans and the EaP countries in terms of governance quality and progress toward EU standards. While the EU has been more successful in promoting reforms in the EaP, the Western Balkans have not seen the same level of improvement, despite having a clearer membership perspective. The study calls for a reassessment of the EU's enlargement and neighbourhood policies and suggests a more flexible approach to better reflect the actual progress of these countries.