2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Turkeys_Energy_Prospects_in_the_EU_24页_350kb

Summary of Turkey's Energy Prospects in the EU-Turkey Context

Core Content

This working paper provides an analysis of Turkey's energy sector in the context of its EU accession process. It outlines the current state of Turkey's energy demand and supply, the regulatory framework, and the prospects for integration with the EU energy system.

Main Points

1. EU Energy Policy and Market Development

• The EU has been working to harmonize its energy market through directives such as the 1996 Electricity Directive and the 2003 Gas Directive.

• These directives emphasize the development of a fully integrated, competitive, secure, and environmentally sustainable energy market.

• Key areas of focus include:

  • Effective regulation
  • Non-discriminatory access to energy networks
  • Adequate interconnection between member states
  • Security of supply
  • Congestion management
  • Energy efficiency and demand-side management
  • Technological development

• The EU energy market remains fragmented, with national markets still dominant. This has led to insufficient progress in achieving full market liberalization, despite legal requirements for member states to open markets by 2004 and fully by 2007.

• Cross-border energy trade is a critical issue, with the EU seeking to liberalize it. However, Turkey still faces regulatory restrictions in this area, although technical preparations for connecting to the European grid are advancing.

2. Energy Demand and Supply in Turkey

2.1 Electricity

• Demand Growth: Turkey's electricity demand has been increasing rapidly, reaching 151.1 TWh in 2004. Projections indicate continued growth, with an average of 8.2% per year from 2005–2010, 8% from 2010–2015, and 7% from 2015–2020.
• Elasticity: The elasticity of electricity demand to GDP growth has varied over the years. It was 1.26 in the 1995–2003 period (excluding 2001 crisis), and is projected to increase to 1.52 in the 2005–2010 period.
• Supply: Installed capacity in electricity generation increased from 27 GW in 2001 to 37.4 GW in 2003. Projections suggest it will reach 41 GW by 2010.
• Energy Mix: Natural gas is the largest source (46.8%), followed by lignite (23.1%), hydro (16.3%), and fuel oil (7.0%).
• Supply-Demand Balance: A surplus is expected in the coming years, but from 2009–2010 onwards, a potential electricity deficit may emerge if new investments are not made. A reserve ratio of 25% is considered reasonable for now.

2.2 Natural Gas

• Demand Growth: Natural gas demand grew by an average of 14% annually from 1989–2002, slowing slightly in recent years.
• Consumption Level: Turkey is the seventh-largest consumer of natural gas in Europe, using 5% of the total European consumption. Natural gas constitutes 23% of the energy mix, with 67% used for power generation, which is much higher than the European average.
• Supply: Most natural gas is imported, with Russia being the main supplier. Contracted imports are expected to rise from 29 Bcm in 2004 to 60 Bcm in 2010.
• Surplus: Due to take-or-pay clauses and other contractual terms, a surplus is expected in the coming years, potentially reaching up to 18% of total contracted supply.
• Infrastructure: A sub-sea pipeline project to transport natural gas to Greece is underway, with potential for expansion to 11.5 Bcm through compression.

2.3 Other Fuels

• Oil: Oil remains a significant energy source, but its role is decreasing due to increased use of natural gas.
• Coal: Coal is used for power generation, but its share is relatively small.
• Hydro Power: Hydroelectric power is a key component of Turkey's energy mix, but its share has been declining due to low rainfall and reliance on state-owned plants.
• Energy Intensity: Turkey's energy intensity (503 kgoe per € thousand) is lower than the EU-15 average (194), indicating relatively better efficiency in energy use.

3. Institutional and Economic Aspects

• Turkey's energy sector is shaped by a complex institutional structure, including state-owned companies and various forms of private participation.
• The privatisation of electricity generation and the liberalization of cross-border trade are seen as essential steps for Turkey's integration into the EU energy system.
• The document highlights the need for further alignment with the EU energy acquis and the importance of regulatory reforms to ensure a competitive and efficient market.

4. Energy Prospects in the EU-Turkey Context

• Turkey's integration into the EU energy system is seen as a realistic possibility if current reforms are fully implemented.
• The document suggests that Turkey should focus on:
  • Improving the regulatory framework
  • Enhancing energy efficiency and reducing losses
  • Increasing the share of renewable energy sources
  • Developing cross-border infrastructure and liberalizing trade
  • Addressing the overestimation of demand and improving projections

5. Conclusions

• Turkey's energy sector faces both challenges and opportunities in its integration with the EU.
• The success of this integration depends on the implementation of reforms, including market liberalization and regulatory alignment.
• The document calls for continued efforts in these areas to ensure a stable and sustainable energy future for Turkey within the EU framework.

Key Information

• Author: Yusuf Işık
• Publication: EU-Turkey Working Paper No. 9, October 2004
• Project: Strategy for the EU and Turkey in the Pre-Accession Period by CEPS and EFPF
• Supporters: Open Society Institute of Istanbul, Akbank, Coca Cola, Doğuş Holding, Finansbank
• Projections:
  • Electricity demand is expected to reach 5692 kWh per capita by 2020.
  • Natural gas demand is projected to reach 55 Bcm in 2010 and 80 Bcm in 2025.
• Challenges:
  • Regulatory shortcomings
  • High energy intensity and low efficiency
  • Overestimation of demand
  • Inadequate infrastructure for cross-border trade
  • Dominance of state-owned enterprises in the energy sector

References

• Eurostat
• Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR)
• Economic Consulting Associates (ECA)
• State Electricity Transmission Company (TEIAS)
• State Electricity Distribution Company (EUAS)
• BOTAS (State Natural Gas Company)

Additional Notes

• The working paper is part of a broader effort to integrate Turkey into the EU energy system.
• It is intended to be used as a basis for a book and will be debated at conferences in Brussels and Istanbul.
• The document emphasizes the importance of a well-regulated and competitive energy market for both Turkey and the EU.