20230714-交银国际证券-保险行业月报_寿险保费增长强劲_财险保持平稳_5页_320kb

Insurance Industry Report Summary (July 14, 2023)

Key Findings

• Life insurance premiums in June 2023 showed strong growth, driven by pre-adjustment sales in traditional products, before China's life insurance industry reduces interest rates. Top performers include Ping An Insurance (+87% year-on-year (y-o-y) overall premiums, +255% new single premium growth) and Taibao (+40% y-o-y). Six listed life insurers saw collective premium growth of 72%, with expected new business value rising 20-25% y-o-y. Premiums in July are key to observing the impact of the interest rate adjustment.
• Property and cargo insurance maintained steady growth, with Ping An (+50% y-o-y, 61% auto insurance growth) and China Taiping (+143%) leading. Policy coverage, such as the Chinese government's insurance policies for agriculture and health, contributed to stability.
• Zhuang'an Insurance posted significant H1 2023 premium growth of 376% y-o-y, primarily from consumption finance and digital services, with optimistic forecasts for承保利润 improvement and investment gains rebounding as US Federal Reserve interest rates likely peak, reducing currency losses. Buy recommendation issued.
• Overall market outlook suggests continued growth in life insurance for savings products post-adjustment, but potential slowdown in new business value after policy changes.

Analyst Recommendations and Ratings

• Buy Recommendations: Ping An Insurance (2318HK), AIA (1299HK), C-ICBC (2628HK).
• Neutral Ratings: China Life Insurance (2628HK), China Taiping (966HK), PICC Insurance (2328HK), NF Insurance (1336HK), People's Insurance (2328HK for its cargo side).
• Valuation metrics based on FY23E and FY24E profitability and growth expectations.

Market Outlook

Expected policies and financial trends: Life insurance growth may decelerate post-adjustment, while property insurance remains stable. Focus on companies with resilient premiums and improved fundamentals. July data critical for rate adjustment effects.