世界银行-突尼斯经济监测，2024年春季：可再生能源对经济的贡献（英）-42页_3mb

TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR: Renewed Energy to the Economy

Executive Summary

1. Recent Economic Developments

• Economic Slowdown (2023): Tunisia's economic recovery, which was already modest, stalled in 2023 due to severe drought, tight financing conditions, and limited reforms. GDP growth slowed to 0.4% year-on-year, with the economy remaining below pre-COVID levels. Agriculture was the primary driver of the slowdown, with a 11% contraction due to drought-induced irrigation restrictions.
• External Financing: The trade deficit improved (10.8% of GDP), but external financing needs remained high at TD 13.4 billion, largely due to debt repayments. Tunisia increasingly relied on domestic financing and central bank reserves, raising concerns about currency and price stability.
• Inflation and Budget: Inflation decreased slightly to 7.5% in February 2024, but food inflation remained elevated. Budget deficits stabilized at 6.7% of GDP, but public investment stagnated, crowded out by debt servicing.

2. Renewable Energy Transition

• Challenges and Opportunities: Tunisia's dependence on fossil fuels undermines its current account sustainability and fiscal balance. Renewable energy offers a cost-effective solution given Tunisia's abundant solar and wind resources. The government aims for 35% renewable energy by 2030, with an estimated investment of US$27-35 billion by 2050.
• Economic Benefits: Achieving renewable targets could save energy costs, reduce imports, and boost GDP growth by at least 1.1% by 2030. The Elmed interconnection project with Italy could enhance energy security and export potential.
• Key Actions: Accelerate regulatory reforms, streamline project approvals, and ensure private sector participation to meet renewable energy goals and stabilize the economy.