2025-05-20-世界银行-促进创新创业_来自突尼斯的准实验证据（英）_56页_792kb

Promoting Innovative Startups: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Tunisia

Key Findings

• Program Impact: The Startup Act increased firm survival rates by 18-26 percentage points and average employment by 1.7-2.0 workers compared to rejected applicants.
• Cost-Effectiveness: A back-of-the-envelope analysis suggests the program has been cost-effective despite being implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Key Mechanisms: Preferential customs treatment and access to foreign currency accounts enabled firm growth and job creation.
• Robustness: Results remain significant when restricting the sample to firms that advanced to the pitch stage (compared to full sample) and in various placebo tests.

Methodology

• Uses a difference-in-differences design comparing treated (selected) firms with controls (rejected applicants).
• Employs the multi-stage selection process to identify a quasi-experimental group.
• Addresses selection bias through rich controls and restricts analysis to the pitch-stage subsample to minimize endogeneity concerns.

Policy Implications

• The program serves as one of the first rigorous evaluations of high-tech entrepreneurship policy in developing countries.
• It demonstrates the potential effectiveness of targeted support for innovative startups in boosting survival and job creation.
• The findings suggest that trade-related advantages may be as important as fiscal incentives for startup success.