2024-05-19-世界银行-突尼斯经济监测_2024年春季_可再生能源对经济的贡献（英）_42页_3mb

Tunisia Economic Monitor Summary

1. Recent Economic Developments

• 2023 saw a sharp economic slowdown due to severe drought, tight financing, and slow reforms, with real GDP growth at 0.4% (well below pre-COVID 2019 levels and one of the slowest regional recoveries).
• Agriculture was the primary drag, declining by 11% due to drought, worsening food shortages, and impacting overall growth and employment (unemployment reached 16.4%).
• External financing challenges intensified, with reliance on domestic banking and central bank reserves. Currency and price stability face pressure from potential overuse of monetary financing.
• Inflation eased slightly (from 10.4% in February 2023 to 7.5% in February 2024), but remains elevated, especially in food, driven by supply constraints from drought and high energy costs.

2. Budget and Fiscal Pressures

• The budget deficit remained stable at 6.7% of GDP in 2023, supported by a slight improvement in tax revenues (driven by VAT and customs) but hindered by low growth.
• Public spending on transfers and debt interest rose, crowding out credit to the private sector. Capital expenditures are low, limiting long-term growth prospects.

3. Energy and External Balance

• Tunisia’s energy deficit widened despite lower global prices, accounting for 56.6% of the merchandise trade deficit. Renewables hold potential to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports.
• High public debt and limited access to international capital markets constrain economic activity. The projected external financing gap in 2024 is substantial (TD 16.4 billion), requiring sovereign borrowing.

4. Key Projections

• Growth is forecasted at 2.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025–2026, assuming drought eases and reforms advance, though prospects remain uncertain.
• Renewables are set to play a dominant role in electricity generation by 2050, under a least-cost strategy, with potential economic gains of up to 1.75% by 2030. Massive investments ($27–35 billion by 2050) will be encouraged through cost competitiveness and regulatory frameworks.

5. Challenges

• Ongoing drought, rigid capital controls, and slow reforms exacerbate economic precarity.
• High energy subsidies, public debt, and external financing needs create fiscal and macroeconomic risks.