20251203-国泰期货-甲醇_震荡运行_上方空间收窄_3页_617kb

Methanol Overview: The report details methanol as an "oscillating" market with limited upward price space, based on recent data and trends.

Fundamental Data: Prices slightly fell, with settlement at 2,145 yuan/ton (up 24 from prior), while volumes and positions show increased volatility. Imports are expected to remain high, exerting downward pressure.

Spot Market Updates: Current prices are largely stable or rising slightly across regions, with some cities showing muted demand. Inventory is decreasing notably in ports, but this is tied to slow unloading; imports could influence future stock levels.

Trend Analysis: Overall trend strength is neutral (strength index at 0), indicating no strong bullish or bearish outlook. MTO profitability constraints and potential negative feedback limit upside; however, lower cost supports provide defense against deeper declines. Short-term volatility expected due to market dynamics.