2022-10-17-IMF-IMF-欧洲的地区差异（英）_32页_4mb

1. Regional Disparities in Europe: Key Findings and Analysis

The working paper analyzes regional disparities in 10 advanced European economies (including the EU and UK) using GDP per capita data from 2000 to 2018, focusing on the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic risks.

1.1 Decomposition and Evolution of Disparities

Regional disparities, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), declined through the early 2000s but began increasing after the Great Recession, driven by diverging unemployment rates and productivity gaps. Within-country disparities were significant, but between-country gaps contributed more to post-2008 divergence. Productivity accounts for the largest share of disparities, while the employment-to-labor-force ratio (ELR) and labor force participation rates show varying convergence trends. Beta-convergence analysis indicates diverging GDP per capita after the Great Recession, with little within-country convergence post-crisis.

1.2 COVID-19 Pandemic Risks

COVID-19 may exacerbate regional disparities through multiple channels:

• Short-term: Low teleworkability rates in lagging regions (lower GDP per capita) make them more vulnerable to mobility restrictions, as remote work is harder, leading to larger economic contractions.
• Medium-term: Risks from automation are lower in poorer regions due to lower routinization rates, but converging vulnerabilities may arise as these regions adopt more routinized jobs.
• Long-term: Green transitions could challenge regions dependent on carbon-intensive sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy), potentially slowing growth in these areas unless supported by compensating policies.

1.3 GDP Components and Labor Markets

Productivity gaps drive disparities, alongside diverging unemployment rates post-Great Recession. Labor force participation shows convergence, but ELR disparities increased significantly. Teleworkability and routinization analyses show a positive correlation with GDP per capita, meaning richer regions are more resilient to remote work but less exposed to automation risks.

1.4 Policy Recommendations

• Place-based policies: Target lagging regions with infrastructure investments (e.g., high-speed internet and digital skills) to improve teleworkability and economic resilience.
• Green transition: Support lagging regions through fiscal measures and retraining programs to facilitate sectoral shifts toward sustainability, avoiding uneven impacts.
• Automation risks: Focus on job retraining and business incentives to enhance adaptability in routinization-prone sectors.

1.5 Conclusions

Regional disparities in Europe have stabilized but remain a concern, especially with exacerbated risks from COVID-19 and technological change. Place-based policies and green-focused strategies are crucial to mitigate divergence, ensuring inclusive growth and equitable transitions.