世界银行-2020年7月尼泊尔发展最新动态：后疫情的尼泊尔：制定复原力和未来增长方向的计划（英文）-2020.7-74页_1mb

Post-Pandemic Nepal - Charting a Resilient Recovery and Future Growth Directions

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of Nepal's economic developments and policy responses in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the challenges faced by Nepal's economy, the impact of the crisis, and the strategic framework for recovery and long-term growth. The report is structured into three main sections: Recent Economic Developments, Outlook, Risks, and Challenges, and a Special Focus on Resilient Recovery and Future Growth Directions.

Main Points

Recent Economic Developments

1. Economic Headwinds in FY2020 H1:

   • Nepal's economy faced significant challenges in the first half of the fiscal year (FY2020), with declines in agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
   • Agriculture was hit by delayed monsoons and armyworm infestations, causing a 1.7% drop in paddy production.
   • Manufacturing suffered due to tightened credit conditions and low public investment execution.
   • Services were impacted by reduced remittances and tourist arrivals, with a 4.3% decline in arrivals from India.

2. Trade and Remittances:

   • Goods imports declined by 3.9% year-on-year in H1FY2020, while services imports contracted for the first time in four years.
   • Goods exports grew due to increased exports of refined palm and soybean oil to India, but services exports declined.
   • Remittances fell by 43.4% in March–May 2020, contributing to a slowdown in consumption and economic activity.

3. Fiscal and Monetary Measures:

   • The government implemented fiscal measures, including immediate health interventions, food distribution programs, and tax deferrals.
   • The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) introduced monetary measures to support liquidity and ease credit conditions.
   • These measures are estimated to cost 5% of GDP, with a focus on mitigating the crisis's impact on livelihoods and businesses.

4. Impact on GDP and Growth:

   • GDP growth in FY2020 is estimated at 1.8%, down from 7% in FY2019.
   • The service sector growth is now at 1%, the lowest since FY2002, and the industrial sector growth is at 3.2%, a four-year low.

Outlook, Risks, and Challenges

1. Economic Outlook:

   • Under a baseline scenario, Nepal's GDP is projected to grow at 2.1% in FY2021.
   • Growth is expected to remain subdued due to ongoing challenges in tourism, remittances, and supply chain disruptions.

2. Risks:

   • Risks are tilted to the downside, with the potential for negative growth in FY2021 if the pandemic continues to impact economic activity.
   • A contraction could worsen poverty, inequality, and food insecurity, especially given the large informal sector.
   • Revenue shortfalls and increased spending could lead to a fiscal deficit of up to 11.5% of GDP.

3. Government Response:

   • The government has initiated policy measures to buffer the economic impact and gradually ease lockdowns.
   • A comprehensive roadmap is needed to ensure a sustainable recovery and to address future shocks.

Special Focus - Resilient Recovery and Future Growth Directions

1. Key Trends:

   • Inward Orientation: Trade and tourism may become more inward-looking due to increased barriers.
   • Increased Vulnerability and Inequality: The crisis has exacerbated inequality and poverty, particularly among informal workers.
   • Digitization: Lockdowns have accelerated the adoption of digital technologies in trade, social interactions, and public services.
   • Green Growth: There is a global push towards environmentally sustainable recovery, with Nepal needing to integrate green growth into its strategy.
   • Debt: Increased leverage among governments, firms, and individuals could lead to systemic risks.

2. Three-Stage Economic Framework:

   • Relief Stage: Focus on immediate health and economic support, including testing, quarantine, and cash transfers.
   • Restructuring Stage: Emphasis on strengthening health systems, promoting domestic employment, and supporting entrepreneurship.
   • Resilient Recovery Stage: Long-term investments in infrastructure, digital systems, and green growth, along with sustainable fiscal and social policies.

3. Four Pillars of the Framework:

   • Health: Prioritize virus containment, health service delivery, and preparedness for future health crises.
   • Social Protection: Implement targeted transfers, support education and employment, and build a resilient social safety net.
   • Economic Measures: Support firms with liquidity, encourage digitization, and promote green investments.
   • Cross-Cutting Priorities: Focus on fiscal sustainability, financial sector stability, digital and green economy development, and resilient public services.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: The pandemic caused a significant contraction in GDP, with the service sector growth at its lowest in over two decades.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 7.3% of GDP in FY2020, up from 2.6% in FY2019.
• Social Impacts: The crisis has increased gender-based violence, disrupted education, and caused a neglect of healthcare.
• Future Directions: Nepal needs to adopt a multi-faceted approach to recovery, focusing on resilience, green growth, and digital transformation.

Priority Actions

• Health: Ensure well-equipped quarantine facilities, increase testing capacity, and develop emergency response plans.
• Social: Expand social safety nets, support distance learning, and re-enroll students in schools.
• Economic: Provide liquidity support, promote digitization, and support green investments.
• Cross-Cutting: Strengthen fiscal and financial sector stability, expand internet access, and improve public service delivery.

This document serves as a guide for Nepal's policymakers, businesses, and the general public to navigate the post-pandemic economic landscape and build a more resilient and sustainable future.