英文_高盛_总体活动大致稳定_区域差异显著_中东欧_中东和非洲地区（CEEMEA）总体采购经理人指数（PMI）4月下降_尽管区域内存在显著差异_20页_2mb

• PMI: The aggregate PMI decreased from 50.4 to 50.1 in April, reflecting continued economic deceleration. Notable divergences include:

  • South Africa saw its PMI plummet to 44.7, the weakest since the pandemic.
  • Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria showed positive trends, reaching multi-year highs or stable.
  • MENA countries mostly declined, with SA, Egypt, Qatar experiencing drops, while PMIs converged in CEE.
  • Turkey remained stable but in contraction, while Russia returned to contraction territory.

• CAI: The aggregate Current Activity Indicator remained unchanged at +2.0%, below the region's potential growth range. Divergences observed:

  • CEE-4 nations saw declines, with Czechia experiencing the largest drop.
  • Poland showed slight improvement, but others like South Africa saw minor gains.
  • Turkey and Israel saw changes, highlighting regional weak spots.

• Financial Conditions: Region-wide FCI tightened by +0.2%, driven largely by Turkey, Russia, and Romania. In contrast, Poland and South Africa saw easing:

  • Turkey experienced the largest tightening amid ongoing challenges.

• Aggregate Surprise and Expectations: The MAP Surprise Index held negative ground, driven by Hungary's underperformance affecting Q1 GDP data. Most other regions saw small positive surprises in activity indicators.

Conclusion: The trend shows slowing economic activity in CEEMEA, with significant regional disparities. Overall indicators remain subdued relative to potential growth, facing pressures such as recessions in parts of the region.