2014年-世界发展银行全球_Philippine_Economic_Update___Pursuing_Inclusive_Growth_through_Sustainable_Reconstruction_and_Job_Creation_84页_2mb

Philippine Economic Update Summary (March 2014)

Core Content

The Philippine Economic Update (Report No. 83315-PH) is a report by the World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) team, focusing on the country's economic performance, policy developments, and long-term challenges, particularly in the context of Typhoon Yolanda and the jobs challenge.

Main Points

1. Economic Growth and Policy Developments

• Growth Acceleration: Despite the impact of Typhoon Yolanda and a series of natural disasters in 2013, the Philippine economy grew at 7.2% in 2013, the highest among ASEAN-5 countries and nearly on par with China.
• Drivers of Growth: Strong performance in consumption and services, supported by investment and manufacturing expansion.
• Remittances: Sustained inflow of remittances fueled private consumption, which grew by 5.6% in 2013 and contributed 3.9 percentage points to overall growth.
• Infrastructure Spending: Public infrastructure spending increased by 22%, reflecting improved efficiency and election-related expenditures.
• Monetary Policy: Inflation remained low at 3%, with policy rates kept at historically low levels (3.5% for overnight borrowing and 5.5% for lending).
• Fiscal Policy: Government finances improved, with revenue collection growing by 12%, driven by better tax administration and "sin tax" reforms.

2. Prospects, Risks, and Policies

• Medium-Term Growth: The Philippines is projected to grow at 6.6% in 2014 and 6.9% in 2015, contingent on the speed and scope of reconstruction.
• Risks to Growth:
  • Slower global recovery.
  • Financial market volatility due to the tapering of US stimulus.
  • Real estate sector bubbles.
  • Delays in post-typhoon reconstruction.
  • Domestic reform lags, especially in tax and governance reforms.
• Resilience to Climate Change: The country needs to prepare for increased disaster risks by implementing an integrated strategy across household, local, national, and international levels, including disaster insurance and resilience-building mechanisms.

3. Building Back Better After Typhoon Yolanda

• Impact of Yolanda:
  • Affected 16.1 million people across nine regions.
  • Displaced 4.1 million, including over 101,000 in evacuation centers.
  • 6,201 fatalities and 1,785 missing reported.
  • 1.1 million houses damaged, 551,000 totally destroyed.
• Economic Consequences:
  • Local economies in affected areas collapsed due to loss of capital, disruption in electricity and irrigation.
  • 6 million workers affected, with 2.6 million vulnerable.
• Reconstruction Strategy:
  • Estimated reconstruction costs at PHP 361 billion (3.1% of GDP), with PHP 125 billion to be borne by the government.
  • Emphasis on "building back better" with explicit standards for safe and resilient infrastructure.
  • Household control over rebuilding is crucial for efficiency and effectiveness.
  • Community-driven development and market efficiency for housing materials are important for recovery.
  • Monitoring and transparency are being implemented to ensure funds are used effectively.

4. Medium-Term Agenda: Addressing the Jobs Challenge

• Poverty Reduction: Despite higher growth, poverty incidence barely improved from 26.3% in 2009 to 25.2% in 2012, indicating growth benefits are not reaching the poor.
• Employment Trends:
  • Weak job creation: Only 63,000 net jobs created in 2013.
  • Informal employment dominates at over 70% of total employment.
  • Youth unemployment: High among 15–24 year olds, many of whom are college graduates.
• Jobs Challenge:
  • Need to focus on raising productivity of farmers and MSMEs.
  • Structural reforms are essential to create more and better jobs.
  • Good governance and inclusive growth require multi-stakeholder coalitions.

5. Special Focus Areas

• Tourism Industry Challenge:
  • The sector faces recovery and development challenges post-Yolanda.
  • Requires sustainable investments and risk-informed planning.
• KALAHI-CIDSS Impact Evaluation:
  • The program has shown positive results in improving community resilience and development outcomes.
  • Highlights the importance of community-driven development in post-disaster recovery.

6. Key Recommendations

• Reform Agenda:
  • Improve fiscal incentives, customs administration, and budget accountability.
  • Enhance property rights, competition, and regulatory efficiency.
  • Attract foreign investments through economic rebalancing in East Asia.
• Job Creation:
  • Emphasize strategic public investments in infrastructure, education, and health.
  • Support private sector growth and employment generation.
  • Address informal employment and skills mismatch.
• Disaster Resilience:
  • Implement disaster risk financing and insurance frameworks.
  • Promote community-driven development and efficient markets for reconstruction.
  • Develop integrated strategies for climate change and disaster resilience.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for sustainable reconstruction, inclusive growth, and structural reforms to address the jobs challenge and poverty reduction. It highlights the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration, good governance, and resilience-building to ensure that the economic gains from growth are equitably distributed and safeguarded against future shocks.