2012年-世界发展银行全球_Philippine_Quarterly_Update___Investing_in_Inclusive_Growth_amid_Global_Uncertainty_40页_22mb

Summary of the Philippine Quarterly Update (July 2012)

Core Content

The Philippine Quarterly Update for July 2012 provides an overview of the country's economic and social developments, highlighting the progress in inclusive growth amidst global uncertainty. It covers key areas such as economic output, employment, poverty, external accounts, financial markets, and fiscal policy, while also analyzing the implications of global risks on the Philippines.

Main Views

Economic Performance

• The Philippine economy grew by 6.4% in 1Q2012, a significant recovery from the 3.9% growth in 2011.
• Net exports and government spending were key contributors to the growth, adding 5.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively.
• Private consumption remained robust, supported by remittances and rising demand in the manufacturing sector.
• Fixed investments showed modest recovery, growing by 2.8%, with durable equipment (like industrial machinery) contributing 3.6% to growth.
• Construction growth remained sluggish, with private construction declining for the third consecutive quarter.

Employment and Poverty

• Approximately 1 million jobs were created between April 2011 and April 2012, with 587,000 in the service sector and 337,000 in agriculture.
• Unemployment rate dropped to 6.9% in April, but underemployment remained high at 19.3%.
• Youth unemployment and the shares of self-employed and unpaid family workers remain elevated.
• The Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, the largest social protection initiative in the Philippines, has benefited 3 million poor households, with 60% of the poor expected to benefit from its expansion in 2012.

External Accounts

• The balance of payments (BOP) surplus improved to 2.2% of GDP in 1Q2012, up from 0.7% in 4Q2011.
• Remittances continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than 2011, due to economic conditions in host countries.
• Exports were bolstered by recovery in demand from North American manufacturers and resolution of supply-side disruptions.
• Gross International Reserves (GIR) remained healthy, exceeding external debt and covering 11.2 months of imports as of March 2012.

Financial Markets

• Domestic liquidity increased by 5.6% in March, indicating sufficient funds to support investment.
• The Philippine equity market reached new highs in 1Q2012, but fell back due to global volatility.
• Sovereign spreads increased slightly, while the exchange rate remained stable.
• The yield curve flattened, suggesting increased investor caution.

Key Information

Regional Disparities

• Spatial growth disparity remains high, with Metro Manila accounting for 55.4% of GDP and ARMM being the poorest region with GDP per capita at 10% of Metro Manila's.
• Lagging regions need better connectivity and social service delivery to promote inclusive growth.

Fiscal Policy

• Government spending increased by 13% year-on-year through May, with infrastructure and social protection receiving significant attention.
• Revenue collection improved to 12.5% of GDP in 1Q2012, up from 11.8% in 1Q2011.
• Tax reforms and improved administration contributed to better revenue mobilization.
• Fiscal deficit in May was PhP22.8 billion or 0.2% of GDP, with a primary surplus of PhP108 billion from January to May.

Risks and Outlook

• The European debt crisis and Chinese slowdown pose downside risks to the Philippine economy.
• Contagion effects are expected through remittance linkages and regional trade networks.
• The economy is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2012 and 5% in 2013, assuming stable global conditions.
• Inclusive growth is expected to be supported by improved human capital and increased public investment in infrastructure.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of continued fiscal discipline, reforms in public spending, and inclusive policies to ensure sustainable growth in the face of global uncertainties. It also highlights the need for greater regional integration and improved factor mobility to reduce spatial disparities and enhance economic resilience.