2017年-世界发展银行全球_Iran_Economic_Monitor_Fall_2017___Sustaining_Growth_-_The_Challenge_of_Job_Creation_36页_640kb

IRAN ECONOMIC MONITOR: SUSTAINING GROWTH THROUGH JOB CREATION

Core Content Overview

This report, Iran Economic Monitor – Sustaining Growth: The Challenge of Job Creation, published in Fall 2017 by the World Bank, provides an analysis of Iran's economic performance and policy developments over the past six months. It highlights the challenges in achieving sustainable economic growth and job creation, while also offering an outlook for the future.

Main Points

I. Recent Economic and Policy Developments

• GDP Growth: In 2016, Iran's GDP growth reached a record 13.4% at market prices, driven by a strong recovery in oil production and exports. This marked a 25-year high, but growth was uneven across sectors.
• Non-Oil Growth: Non-oil GDP growth rebounded to 3.3% in 2016, up from a 3.1% contraction in 2015. However, it was insufficient to reduce unemployment.
• Sectoral Trends:
  • The oil and gas sector saw significant growth, with real value added increasing by 62% in 2016.
  • Construction and industries and mining were the weakest contributors, affected by sanctions and investment constraints.
• Trade and Exports: Oil exports surged by 41.3% in 2016, leading to an improvement in the current account surplus to 3.9% of GDP. However, import growth remained subdued at 6.1%, failing to offset the 20.2% contraction in 2015.
• Inflation and Currency: Inflation eased to single digits in 2016, but pressures resurfaced towards the end of the year and in early 2017 due to liquidity increases and Rial depreciation.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit increased from 1.7% of GDP in 2015 to 2.2% in 2016, despite a surge in oil and tax revenues. The government faced challenges in balancing its budget due to rising expenditures and limited revenue growth.

II. Outlook and Risks

• Medium-Term Growth: Growth is expected to moderate to an average of 4% in 2018–19, reflecting a gradual reintegration with the global economy.
• FDI and Investment: FDI inflows remain constrained, and the economy is heavily reliant on oil and non-oil exports. However, recent agreements with foreign investors, such as the $4.8 billion deal with Total and the €1 billion with Oberbank, indicate potential for increased investment.
• Job Creation Challenge: Despite growth, job creation has been limited, with the unemployment rate rising to 12.6% in Q1 2017. The labor market remains underperforming, particularly for women and youth.
• Structural Constraints: Job creation is hindered by low labor force participation, especially among women and young people, and by rigid labor market structures.
• External Risks: The future of the JCPOA and potential US sanctions pose major risks to investor confidence and economic growth. Lower-than-expected oil prices could also negatively impact government revenues.
• Demographic Challenge: Iran is entering an aging phase, with the elderly population expected to reach 25% of the total by 2050. This will require a significant increase in labor force participation to sustain growth.

Key Information

• Unemployment Trends: The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 11.7% in Q2 2017, but the labor force participation rate (LFPR) increased to 41%, indicating a growing labor force without corresponding job creation.
• Gender and Age Disparities: Women's LFPR remains low at 15%, below the MENA average of 20%. Youth unemployment is particularly high, with over a third of youth aged 15–24 being NEET (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) in 2013.
• New National Accounts Series: The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) introduced a new GDP series based on the 2011 base year, which significantly changed the measurement of GDP components. This led to upward revisions in several sectors, especially industries and mines, and downward adjustments in net exports and consumption.
• Government Revenues and Expenditures: Tax revenues were the main driver of government income growth in 2016, but actual revenues fell short of the budget. The share of oil in government revenues declined to 33.5% in 2016 but is expected to rise again in 2017 due to higher oil exports.
• Public Debt Management: The government has continued to securitize public debt and arrears, with a significant increase in the issuance of Islamic financial instruments. This helps to improve liquidity for lenders and producers, but also highlights the need for stronger capital markets and debt management.

Special Focus: Employment and Labor Market Trends

• Employment Elasticity: There is a weak link between economic growth and employment creation, with employment-growth elasticities indicating that growth has not translated into significant job creation.
• Sectoral Employment: The non-oil sector and private investment are expected to play a larger role in future growth. However, the construction and industrial sectors have been the weakest in terms of employment generation.
• Labor Force Participation: Participation rates have declined for both men and women between 2005 and 2013, particularly among youth. The trend has halted in recent years, but participation rates have not recovered to 2005 levels.
• Occupational Distribution: Women are underrepresented in high-productivity sectors, with a majority working in low-productivity roles. This highlights the need for better skills development and labor market reforms.
• Fiscal Constraints: The government's ability to create fiscal space for growth is constrained by rising pension liabilities and the securitization of arrears. This poses a challenge for long-term growth and employment.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of sustaining growth through job creation and improving the business environment and labor market efficiency. It also highlights the need for structural reforms in the non-oil sector, investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, and greater integration with the global economy. The JCPOA and sanctions relief have provided a positive outlook, but external risks and domestic policy implementation remain critical to ensuring long-term growth and employment.