2014年-世界发展银行全球_Philippine_Economic_Update_August_2014___Investing_in_the_Future_Sharing_Growth_and_Job_Opportunities_for_All_40页_2mb

Philippine Economic Update Summary (August 2014)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of recent economic and policy developments in the Philippines, as well as the outlook for growth and the risks that could affect it. It highlights the importance of structural reforms and fiscal policies in achieving more inclusive growth and job creation.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Growth Deceleration: After two years of strong growth, the Philippines' GDP growth slowed to 5.7% in Q1 2014, although it still outperformed other regional economies.
• Growth Drivers: Growth was driven by private consumption, durable equipment, and infrastructure spending. Net exports also contributed, recovering after 5 quarters of contraction.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • The services sector remained the main growth driver, growing at 6.8% and contributing 3.8 ppt to overall growth.
  • Agriculture remained weak, growing only 0.9% due to the impact of weather-related disasters.
  • Manufacturing growth slowed to 6.8%, but was partially offset by growth in furniture and fixtures and electronics.
• Private Construction: Private construction contracted by 6%, with a decline in building permits issued over the past 5 quarters, suggesting the real estate boom may be peaking.

Poverty and Employment

• Poverty Reduction: Poverty incidence fell by 3 percentage points between 2012 and 2013, dropping to 24.9%, lifting 2.5 million Filipinos out of poverty.
• Job Creation: In 2014, there were signs of net job creation, with 1.7 million jobs added in April, driven by the services sector (580,000 jobs), agriculture (323,000 jobs), and industry (175,000 jobs).
• Unemployment and Underemployment: Unemployment and underemployment remained high, but showed some signs of recovery.
• Income Sources: The reduction in poverty in 2013 was attributed to non-job income such as remittances and subsidies, rather than employment growth.

Financial Markets

• Capital Outflows: The Philippines experienced significant capital outflows in Q1 2014, leading to a BOP deficit of USD 4.5 billion (7% of GDP) and a depreciation of the peso.
• Reserve Levels: Despite the outflows, GIR remained at USD 80 billion, sufficient to cover 11 months of imports or 6.8 times short-term external liabilities.
• Stock Market Recovery: The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEi) rebounded, reaching 6,900 in August 2014, a 17% gain from the start of the year, driven by net foreign purchases.
• Bond Prices: Bond prices remained depressed due to rising interest rates, though the credit rating was upgraded by Standard & Poor's.

Prices and Monetary Policy

• Inflation Acceleration: CPI inflation rose to 4.3% in the first 7 months of 2014, up from 3% in 2013, driven by food, electricity, and petroleum prices.
• Core Inflation: Core inflation remained 3%, indicating that the increase was mainly due to volatile items.
• Monetary Tightening: The BSP tightened monetary policy, increasing the RRR by 2 ppt to 20% and the SDA rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, and raised policy rates in July.
• Credit Growth: Credit expansion in the real estate sector was over 21%, increasing bank exposure to PHP 1 trillion (9% of GDP). Stress tests were introduced to ensure banks could absorb shocks.

Fiscal Policy

• Tax Revenue Growth: Tax collection in Q1 2014 reached PHP 355 billion (12.4% of GDP), up from 12% of GDP in the same period last year.
• Improved Tax Administration: The increase in tax effort was mainly due to improved tax administration, including media campaigns and new regulations for passive income reporting.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit in Q1 2014 reached PHP 84 billion (3% of GDP), up from PHP 66 billion (2.5%) a year ago.
• Debt Profile: Total government debt rose to PHP 5.63 trillion (48.7% of 2013 GDP), mainly due to domestic borrowing and peso depreciation. The overall debt trajectory remains sustainable.

Medium-Term Reform Agenda

• Tax Reform Package: A tax reform package is needed to increase revenues, support infrastructure and social services spending, and enhance growth inclusivity.
• Structural Reforms: Key reforms include protecting property rights, promoting competition, and simplifying regulations.
• Inclusive Growth: The report emphasizes that further economic reforms, especially those impacting the poor, are essential to achieve more inclusive growth and address the jobs challenge.

Risks and Challenges

• External Risks: Risks include disorderly policy normalization in high-income countries, China's property market adjustment, political tensions, and territorial disputes.
• Domestic Risks: Slow reconstruction spending, delayed reforms, and reduced government consumption could hinder growth.
• Price and Financial Stability: Strong liquidity and credit growth, along with rising commodity prices, pose risks to price and financial stability.

Conclusion

The report concludes that strong macroeconomic fundamentals and sound fiscal and monetary policies will support growth in the near term, while further structural reforms are necessary to sustain growth above 6% in the medium term. It also highlights the importance of tax reform and investment in human and physical capital to achieve more inclusive growth and reduce poverty.