2012年-世界发展银行全球_Philippine_Economic_Update_December_2012___Accelerating_Reforms_to_Sustain_Growth_60页_6mb

报告摘要

Philippine Economic Update Summary (December 2012)

Core Content

The Philippine Economic Update (December 2012) highlights the country's strong economic performance and the need for structural reforms to sustain growth and improve labor market outcomes. The report is authored by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit of the World Bank Office Manila and includes analysis of macroeconomic trends, fiscal policy, inflation, and specific focus areas such as the BPO sector, Mindanao power crisis, and open government initiatives.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Growth and Performance

The Philippine economy grew at 7.1% in Q3 2012, making it one of the fastest-growing in East Asia.
GDP growth accelerated from 6.0% in Q2, with the construction sector (up 24.8%) and government spending (up 12%) being key contributors.
Private consumption remained robust, growing by 6.2% in Q3, supported by remittances.
Services sector growth (7.0%) was a major driver, while manufacturing and agriculture also showed improvement.
Agricultural growth accelerated to 4.1% in Q3, despite challenges in the fishing industry.

Employment and Labor Market

Net job creation in July fell to its lowest level since 2007, indicating weak labor market responsiveness to growth.
Sectors with high informality, such as agriculture and wholesale and retail trade, experienced job losses.
Formal employment increased to 59.1% of total employment, a 3 percentage point improvement from the previous year.
Unemployment rate remained high at 7%, while underemployment rose to 22.7%.

External Accounts and Trade

The current account surplus stayed above 3% of GDP, driven by strong exports and robust remittances (around 8% of GDP).
Merchandise exports grew by 22.8% in September, the strongest since 2010, with non-electronic exports (nearly 55% of total) rising significantly.
Electronic exports declined due to weak demand in key markets like the G-3 (Germany, Japan, and South Korea).
Japan became an increasingly important export destination, especially for non-electronic and service exports.
Imports grew at a slower pace than exports, helping to restrain the trade deficit.

Financial Markets

Capital inflows rebounded due to improved global financial conditions and credit rating upgrades.
Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) increased, with FPI reaching USD1.8 billion from July to October.
Gross International Reserves (GIR) hit a record high of USD82.1 billion in October, 31% higher than external debt.
The peso appreciated to PHP40.8/USD by November, reflecting strong foreign demand for Philippine assets.
Treasury yields declined significantly, with 91-day T-bills falling to 0.15% from 0.3% in end-October.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) reached a record high of 5,534 points in mid-November, driven by foreign investment.

Fiscal Policy and Revenue

Government spending increased to 15% above last year, with a focus on infrastructure and capital outlays (up 27% to PHP224 billion).
Revenue collections through October reached PHP1.25 trillion, 12% higher than the previous year and 11.7% of GDP.
The budget deficit through October was 1.2% of GDP, significantly below the target of 2.7% of GDP.
The excise tax reform bill on tobacco and alcohol is expected to generate nearly 0.4% of GDP in revenue, supporting the universal healthcare program.

Policy Recommendations

Enhance reform momentum to shift the economy from consumption-driven to investment-driven growth.
Diversify the export basket and reduce reliance on electronics exports.
Improve labor market outcomes by promoting labor-intensive manufacturing and high-value services.
Implement structural reforms in agriculture, manufacturing, business, and labor regulations.
Increase public investment in health, education, and infrastructure.
Address challenges from remittances and foreign capital inflows, including Dutch Disease effects and firm competitiveness.

Special Focus Sections

BPO Sector: The BPO industry has grown rapidly, becoming a world-class sector, supported by strong domestic demand and low interest rates.
Mindanao Power Crisis: Investing in power infrastructure is critical to avert a power crisis and reduce input costs for firms.
Open Government/Open Data: Expanding open government initiatives can enhance inclusive institutions and improve public accountability.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while the Philippine economy has shown strong growth and resilience, structural reforms are essential to sustain long-term growth and create better jobs. It also highlights the importance of diversification in exports and the need to address institutional challenges to support inclusive growth. The positive outlook for the economy is tempered by global uncertainties, including weak demand in key export markets and economic slowdowns in high-income countries.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Philippine GDP growth at 7.1% in Q3 2012.
Figure 2: Construction growth offset weakness in durable equipment investment.
Figure 3: Growth sustained by private consumption, public spending, and investment.
Figure 4: Services sector growth remained resilient, while manufacturing and agriculture also improved.
Figure 5: Net job creation in July at its lowest since 2007.
Figure 6: Sectors with high informality shed jobs.
Figure 7: Formal employment share increased to 59.1%.
Figure 8: Unemployment remains high at 7%.
Figure 9: External balances remain healthy, with a BOP surplus of 2.8% of GDP.
Figure 10: G-3 is a key export destination.
Figure 11: Diversification towards non-electronics helped offset weakness in electronics.
Figure 12: Japan is an increasingly important export destination.
Figure 13: Slower import growth helped restrain the trade deficit.
Figure 14: Remittances remain stable but slowing.
Figure 15: Remittances from Europe rebounded despite the debt crisis.
Figure 16: Diverse jobs held by overseas Filipinos support remittance inflows.
Figure 17: Capital inflows rebounded due to easing financial market tensions.
Figure 18: GIR reached record highs of USD82.1 billion.
Figure 19: Treasury yields declined substantially.
Figure 20: PSEi reached a record high of 5,534 points.
Figure 21: Inflation remains benign, at the lower end of the central bank's target.
Figure 22: Slow adjustments in food, utilities, fuel, and transport prices.
Figure 23: Positive consumer outlook suggests private demand will hold firm.
Figure 24: Business sentiment remains positive, with exporters being an exception.
Figure 25: Public sector debt sustainability analysis indicates a positive outlook.

Tables

Table 1: Selected key policy recommendations.
Table 2: Selected economic indicators for the Philippines, 2009-14.
Table 3: National government cash accounts (GFS basis), 2008-12.

Boxes

Box 1: Assessing fiscal sustainability for the Philippine economy.

Notes

The report was prepared by Tehmina Khan, Marianne Juco, Karl Kendrick Tiu Chua, and Paul Mariano.
It was supported by World Bank colleagues and data contributors.
Media and dissemination were handled by the Communications Team.
The findings are those of World Bank staff, not necessarily reflecting the views of the Executive Board or governments.