2014年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Economic_Update___Who_Wants_a_Job__84页_17mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Tanzania Economic Update provides a comprehensive analysis of the country's economic performance and the challenges and opportunities arising from rapid urbanization. It outlines both the macroeconomic trends and the structural issues affecting business growth and employment in urban areas.

Key Messages

• By 2027, more Tanzanians will live in urban areas than in the countryside, and Dar es Salaam will become a megacity with over 10 million people.
• Urbanization presents significant opportunities for growth and job creation, but also challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, poor business environment, and limited access to credit.
• Cities can foster equitable growth and job creation by reducing distances between suppliers and customers, but Tanzania risks falling behind in these areas.
• The fiscal deficit worsened in 2012/13, reaching 6.8% of GDP, higher than the initial target of 5.8%.
• The unemployment rate is low at around 4%, but many people lack productive jobs with sufficient income.
• The agricultural sector, which employs 75% of the workforce, has a lower growth rate than the overall economy, contributing to slow rural poverty reduction and accelerated urban migration.
• Natural gas discovery has made Tanzania more attractive to investors, but its economic benefits are expected to materialize only from 2016 or 2017.
• Small businesses are the backbone of the economy, but they face significant challenges including low profitability, limited access to capital, and high operational costs.
• The government must address these challenges to ensure sustainable growth, fiscal sustainability, and equitable development.

Main Points

Economic Performance (2013)

• GDP growth remained robust at 7%, close to the 10-year average and higher than neighboring countries like Uganda and Kenya.
• Inflation declined to 6%, after peaking at 20% in 2011.
• Balance of payments improved due to increased private capital inflows, offsetting declines in exports.
• Export performance was the weakest in over a decade, largely due to falling global commodity prices, especially gold.
• International reserves reached the equivalent of four months of merchandise imports.
• Fiscal deficit reached 6.8% of GDP, significantly above the initial target of 5.8%.
• Recurrent expenditures increased faster than development expenditures, leading to cuts in public investment.
• Arrears with suppliers and pension funds reached 4% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Outlook and Challenges

• Economic growth is expected to remain around 7% in the short to medium term, provided the economy is not hit by food and energy price shocks.
• Inflation is projected to stabilize at 5%, but remains a concern.
• Current account deficit is expected to stay at 12-14% of GDP, to be financed by private capital inflows.
• The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5-5% of GDP in the future.
• Small businesses are not able to create sufficient employment or grow significantly, often due to lack of skills, limited access to credit, and high operational costs.
• Urban areas are expected to grow rapidly, with Dar es Salaam becoming a mega city by 2030.
• Job creation is critical, as the labor force is projected to increase from 23 million to 45 million by 2030.
• The business environment is uncertain, corrupt, and overburdened with bureaucracy, which hinders formalization and hiring.

Key Challenges

• Low productivity in small businesses.
• High congestion costs, with Dar es Salaam residents spending 34% of their income on transportation.
• Uncertainty in the rule of law, corruption, and inconsistent policies.
• Limited access to credit, especially for small enterprises.
• Inadequate infrastructure, housing, and public services in urban areas.
• High levels of arrears, which threaten fiscal sustainability.
• Low education levels, with the average Tanzanian completing only seven years of schooling.

Opportunities

• Urbanization can drive business growth and job creation.
• Natural gas reserves offer attractive investment opportunities.
• ICT and financial services are growing rapidly.
• Small businesses can be transformed into job-creation engines with the right policies and support.
• Technology and financial inclusion can help improve access to credit and support entrepreneurship.

Recommendations

• Improve revenue collection, especially VAT.
• Control current expenditures and increase development spending.
• Address fiscal risks by managing arrears and public debt.
• Enhance the business environment by reducing bureaucracy, corruption, and administrative burdens.
• Invest in urban infrastructure, including transport, housing, and public services.
• Encourage formalization of small businesses and improve access to credit.
• Support dynamic firms to scale up and become more competitive.
• Promote financial inclusion through technology and microfinance.
• Foster agglomeration effects to boost productivity and demand in urban areas.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of urbanization for economic transformation and job creation, but also underscores the urgent need for policy reforms to address structural challenges in the business environment and fiscal sustainability. It calls for coordinated efforts between the government, private sector, and civil society to ensure that Tanzania can leverage urban growth for inclusive and sustainable development.