2013年-世界发展银行全球_Philippine_Economic_Update___Accelerating_Reforms_to_Meet_the_Jobs_Challenge_54页_1mb

Summary of the Philippine Economic Update (May 2013)

Core Content

The Philippine Economic Update (May 2013) provides a comprehensive overview of the country's economic performance and policy developments over the past 6 to 12 months. It emphasizes the need for accelerating reforms to address the jobs challenge, which is central to poverty reduction and inclusive growth. The report highlights key areas such as fiscal policy, real estate market dynamics, tax reform, conditional cash transfer impact, and procurement modernization. It also evaluates the medium-term growth prospects and outlines the reform agenda necessary to sustain and improve economic outcomes.

Main Points

Economic Performance in 2012

• The Philippine economy grew by 6.6% in 2012, surpassing the government's target of 5–6%.
• Private consumption and construction were the main growth drivers, contributing 6.1% and 8.6% to GDP growth, respectively.
• Public spending rebounded, with public construction growing by over 32%, and public consumption increasing from 1% to 11.8%.
• Net exports contributed around 2 percentage points to GDP growth due to stronger export growth and slower import growth.
• Services sector was the primary engine of growth, expanding by 7.4% and contributing 4.2 percentage points to overall growth.
• Agriculture and manufacturing also showed solid growth, though agriculture was a weak performer in terms of job creation.

Employment and Poverty

• Job creation in 2012 was below expectations, with net job generation declining by almost 50% to 606,000.
• Agriculture lost 637,000 jobs, while manufacturing, other industries, and services created 125,000, 268,000, and 851,000 jobs, respectively.
• Poverty incidence remained largely unchanged between 2009 and 2012, at 28.6% to 27.9%, indicating that growth benefits did not reach the poorest Filipinos.
• Spatial disparities in poverty are significant, with the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao having a poverty rate over 50%, while the National Capital Region had a rate of 5.4%.
• The Philippines faces a major jobs challenge, needing to create 14.4 million jobs by 2016 to address 10 million unemployed or underemployed Filipinos and 1.1 million new labor market entrants annually.

Medium-Term Outlook

• GDP growth is projected at 6.2% in 2013 and 6.4% in 2014, driven by domestic demand.
• Sustained growth above 5% can create around 2.2 million good jobs between 2013 and 2016.
• However, by 2016, 12.4 million Filipinos will still be unemployed, underemployed, or forced to work in the informal sector.
• Risks to growth include a slower global recovery, domestic reform lags, and possible asset price bubbles in the real estate and stock markets.

Key Reforms and Policies

Fiscal Policy

• Government spending efficiency improved in 2012, with total disbursements reaching PHP 1.78 trillion or 16.8% of GDP.
• Infrastructure spending grew by 58%, reflecting more efficient bidding, implementation, and payment systems.
• Tax revenues increased by 13.2%, with tax effort rising from 12.3% to 12.9% of GDP.
• The government aims to increase tax revenues by 3 percentage points of GDP by 2016 through improved tax administration.
• A campaign to increase tax collection from self-employed professionals could generate up to 2% of GDP in tax revenues without raising tax rates.

Special Focus Areas

• Measuring capital formation and statistical discrepancies in national accounts is crucial for accurate economic assessments.
• The real estate market is a cause for concern, with potential asset price bubbles and weak demand for housing.
• The 1986 Tax Reform Program and related administrative reforms have had a positive impact on the tax system.
• The conditional cash transfer (CCT) program has improved poverty reduction and human welfare.
• Procurement modernization is a priority to increase efficiency and combat corruption.

Conclusion

The Philippines is on a path of strong economic recovery, supported by positive external balances, improved fiscal management, and strong remittances. However, the key challenge remains creating more and better jobs for a growing population, especially for the informal sector which accounts for 75% of total employment. The report calls for a comprehensive reform agenda to improve business environment, competition, and property rights, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing. These reforms are essential to achieve inclusive growth and reduce poverty.

Data Appendix and References

The report includes data appendices and references to recent World Bank publications on the Philippines, providing additional context and policy insights. It also acknowledges the contributions of various teams and individuals involved in the preparation of the report.

Authors and Contributors

• Karl Kendrick Chua (Senior Economist and Task Team Leader)
• Paul Mariano and Joseph Louie Limkin (Research Analysts)
• Rogier van den Brink (Lead Economist)
• Kai Kaiser, Marianne Juco, Nazmul Chaudhury, Jed Friedman, and Junko Onishi contributed to special focus sections.
• William Christophe Ang and Anthony Sabarillo provided research assistance.
• Maria Consuelo Sy and Ayleen Ang offered secretarial and publication support.
• The Manila Communications Team assisted with content review, media release, and dissemination.

Additional Notes

• The Philippines has received its first-ever investment-grade credit rating in March 2013, followed by an upgrade in May 2013.
• Remittances continue to be a major driver of economic growth, reaching USD 21.4 billion or 8.5% of GDP in 2012.
• The country needs to diversify its export basket and move up the electronics value chain to ensure sustainable export growth and create more manufacturing jobs.
• Smuggling and statistical discrepancies in the oil sector are notable issues that require further investigation and reform.