20240807-交银国际证券-中国7月进出口数据点评_出口有韧性_进口显著超预期_10页_2mb

export growth decelerating despite strong dollar-based July results showed divergent trends in July exports, with overall growth in exports (7% YoY) falling short of expectations and the previous month’s pace, while imports showed a remarkable turnaround with significantly higher dollar-linked figures. Key drivers included the robust performance of machinery and electronic exports and re-export of integrated circuits.

Key points and insights:

1. July Export Growth Faced Headwinds: A July export ($70bn YoY vs. est. 95% & prior 86%) dipped but industrial goods and tech products provided crucial stimulus. Significantly, the trend coefficient (-23%) fell below seasonal norms.

2. Import Turnaround Eye-Catching: Imports ($72bn YoY vs. prior negative and only expected 32%). Factors: high re-imports of integrated circuits (155% YoY) and semiconductor equipment; energy-related imports also improved significantly.

3. Product Mix Diversified:

   • High-Tech & Industrial Dominance: The export portfolio remains strong, driven by robots, integrated circuits (28% YoY, $26bn value share), and automotive might (139% YoY), accounting for nearly 98% of high-stech exports.
   • Base Erosion: Weakness was concentrated elsewhere, particularly labor-intensive goods. Apparel (-38% YoY), furniture (-42% YoY), toys (-119% YoY) plummet monthly; also strategic fading goods like crude oil (-19% YoY) and稀土 (-37% YoY). Some early COVID demand surges are also waning.

4. Regional Trade Shifts: Markets like Western Europe led total export growth (80% YoY) and provided crucial stimulus. Highly buoyant (231% YoY) are exports to China Taiwan (which often retail-for-bulk transactions). Regional trade factors appear of increasing vital importance.

5. Integrated Circuits Poles Apart: Monthly re-export stability, but chip imports surged (+155% YoY) providing a strong baseline for import figures.

Data showing the underlying growth reversal weren’t as dramatic. Still, this needs deeper interpretation. Analysts also forecast currency (RMB) export figures rose 65% YoY, but imports jumped 66% (YoY). Trade surplus shrank sharply to $84.65bn from earlier peaks, stimulating concerns over global demand while subtly rewarding home consumption policy shifts. Regarding the future, analysts suggest current widening trade gaps might be temporary, impelled by global tech cycles and seasonal effects. Stronger domestic focus is urged as overseas stimulus wanes—a potent play on China services sector and broader domestic incentives announced at recent Politburo meeting. Currency valuation plays become evermore crucial should central bank tools allow stronger manipulation at upcoming decisions.