战略与国际研究中心-Net-Assessments-of-the-Middle-East-Military-Balance---Saudi-Arabia,-UAE,-and-Yemen_58页_223kb

Military Balance in the Southern Gulf: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Yemen

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of military expenditures, arms transfers, and force trends in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen from the late 1980s to the late 1990s. It highlights the economic and strategic implications of military spending in the region, particularly in the context of the Gulf War (1990-1991), and outlines the development and modernization of military equipment and forces.

Main Points

Saudi Arabia

Military Expenditures and Economy

• Military spending as a percentage of GDP has increased due to population growth and limited economic growth, despite a decline in per capita military expenditure.
• The Gulf War caused a significant surge in military spending, but the increase was smaller relative to GDP compared to Kuwait.
• Saudi Arabia increased oil export revenues, which helped offset the costs of the Gulf War.
• Military spending in 1995-1997 was estimated at $17.2–18.2 billion.
• Annual military expenditures remained relatively constant, reflecting large orders spread over long periods.

Arms Imports and Suppliers

• Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest arms importers, but its arms imports have not significantly increased post-Gulf War.
• The majority of arms purchases were from the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy after 1991.
• There was a decline in European and PRC orders following the Gulf War.
• New arms agreements dropped from $26.7 billion (1989–1992) to $20.3 billion (1993–1996).
• Arms deliveries rose slightly from $29.6 billion (1989–1992) to $29.8 billion (1993–1996).

Equipment and Modernization

• Acquired 315 M-1A2 tanks, 175 M-998 utility trucks, and various support systems during the Gulf War.
• Plans to purchase 235–350 additional M-1A2s, Challenger 2s, or Le Clercs by 2000, but funding remains uncertain.
• Upgraded Patriot batteries, F-15S aircraft, and Apache helicopters.
• Considered purchasing AEGIS-class warships, Harpoon missiles, and Tomahawk cruise missiles but found them too expensive.
• Has a large backlog of orders and faces training, conversion, and sustainability challenges.

Force Trends

• Total active military personnel increased from 63,000 (1975) to 162,500 (1999).
• Regular army personnel rose from 47,000 (1975) to 105,500 (1999).
• Active main battle tanks increased to 910 (1995) and 1,055 (1999).
• APCs and AIFVs increased significantly, with 3,670 APCs (1995) and 3,380 (1999).
• Fighter/attack aircraft increased from 30 (1975) to 1,608 (1999), with a focus on F-15S and Apache helicopters.
• The Saudi Air Force expanded its combat aircraft and helicopter fleet, including 157 helicopters (1999) and 12 armed helicopters.

Challenges

• Lack of standardization and overlapping purchases from different suppliers lead to sustainability and interoperability issues.
• A large backlog of orders and training, maintenance, and logistics challenges.
• The military is temporarily saturated in terms of cash flow and absorption capacity.

UAE

Military Expenditures and Economy

• The UAE has shown little real economic growth but kept military spending low relative to GDP.
• Defense expenditures rose from $2 billion (1995) to $2.1 billion (1996).
• Military spending as a percentage of GDP is relatively low, and arms imports do not place a major economic burden.

Arms Imports and Suppliers

• Arms imports increased significantly post-Gulf War, with a five-fold rise in new orders between 1991–1994.
• Major suppliers included UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia, with a focus on Western European countries.
• The UAE and Qatar were among the largest Gulf states to increase arms imports following the Gulf War.
• Arms imports have seen a decline in volume since the Gulf War.

Equipment and Modernization

• Acquired Lafayette-class frigates, Sandown minelayers, and advanced air defense systems.
• Purchased Hawk 65 jets and Swiss Pilatus PC-9 turboprop trainers.
• Considered replacing F-5s with F-16C/DBlock 60 or JAS 39X Gripen.
• Has plans for future upgrades of SAM systems and air defense capabilities.

Force Trends

• Total active military personnel increased from 5,500 (1975) to 18,000 (1999).
• Fighter/attack aircraft increased from 30 (1975) to 1608 (1999).
• Air defense systems and Patriot batteries were acquired.
• The UAE has no major naval combatants and limited naval capabilities, with only 8–15 naval aircraft and 25 armed helicopters.

Yemen

Military Expenditures and Economy

• Yemen's military spending and arms imports have been relatively low compared to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• The country's economic conditions have been strained, with limited GDP growth and high population growth.
• Military spending as a percentage of GDP is low, and the country has struggled with budget deficits.

Arms Imports and Suppliers

• Yemen has not significantly increased arms imports post-Gulf War.
• Arms imports were relatively low in the early 1990s but saw a moderate increase.
• The country has had limited success in standardizing its military equipment and has faced sustainability issues.

Equipment and Modernization

• Acquired M-113 armored personnel carriers, M-548 cargo carriers, and M-578 recovery vehicles.
• Considered purchasing MLRS systems and new air defense equipment, but many plans were canceled.
• Has a limited number of combat aircraft and helicopters, with only 10 combat aircraft and 12 armed helicopters in 1999.
• Military modernization efforts are limited, and the country faces serious interoperability and sustainability challenges.

Key Trends

Saudi Arabia

• High military spending relative to GDP, driven by population growth and Gulf War.
• Major shift to US suppliers post-Gulf War, with decline in European and PRC orders.
• Large backlog and interoperability issues due to overlapping and non-standardized purchases.
• Future modernization plans are ambitious, but funding remains unclear.

UAE

• Moderate military spending relative to GDP.
• Significant increase in arms imports post-Gulf War, with a focus on Western European suppliers.
• Limited naval capabilities, but advanced air defense and fighter aircraft.
• Modernization efforts include replacing older aircraft and upgrading SAM systems.

Yemen

• Low military spending and arms imports relative to GDP.
• Struggles with budget deficits and sustainability issues.
• Limited military modernization and interoperability problems.
• Fewer combat aircraft and helicopters compared to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Conclusion

The document outlines the military balance in the Southern Gulf, emphasizing that Saudi Arabia maintains the highest military expenditures and most advanced forces, while the UAE has a moderate approach and Yemen remains underdeveloped in terms of military capabilities. All three countries have faced sustainability and interoperability challenges, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected due to its large scale of military procurement and complex supply chain. The Gulf War had a limited impact on the Saudi economy due to increased oil revenues, but it accelerated the country's military modernization. The UAE, on the other hand, did not see the same level of spending surge but still increased arms imports significantly. Yemen, with limited resources, has struggled to modernize its military and faces serious economic and logistical constraints.