战略与国际研究中心-Net-Assessments-of-the-Middle-East-Military-Balance-North-Africa-Country-by-Country-Analysis_47页_172kb

Military Balance in the Middle East - III Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of military balance in North Africa, focusing on Morocco, Algeria, and Libya. It includes data on military manpower, major military equipment, military spending, arms imports, and trends in arms deliveries and supplier shares from 1975 to 1999. The report is authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, a Senior Fellow for Strategic Assessment, and is dated December 26, 1998.

Key Countries and Their Military Trends

Morocco

• Military Manpower (1985-1997): The total military manpower increased over time, with a notable rise in active conscripts and paramilitary forces.
• Military Manpower by Service (1999): The military manpower was distributed across different services, with the largest share in the land forces.
• Major Military Equipment (1999):
  • Main Battle Tanks: 524
  • AIFVs/Armored Cars/Lt. Tanks: 559
  • APCs/Recce/Scouts/Half-Tracks: 785
  • ATGM Launchers: 720
  • SP Artillery: 167
  • Towed Artillery: 190
  • MRLs: 39
  • Mortars: 1,700
  • AA Guns: 425
  • Lt. SAM Launchers: 107
• Military Spending and Arms Imports (1984-1994): Military spending and arms imports were relatively stable, with some fluctuations.
• War Against the Polisario (1984-1995): The cost of the war slightly decreased in affordability.
• Arms Agreements and Deliveries (1987-1997): Major suppliers included France, the US, and other Western European countries.
• Trend in Deliveries (1973-1994): Arms deliveries decreased over time, especially after the Gulf War.
• Supplier Share Trends: The share of arms imports from different regions, including Western Europe and the US, showed changes before and after the Gulf War.

Algeria

• Military Manpower (1985-1999): The total military manpower increased significantly, with a notable rise in active and reserve forces.
• Military Manpower by Service (1998): The military manpower was distributed across different services, with the largest share in the land forces.
• Major Military Equipment (1998):
  • Main Battle Tanks: 951
  • AIFVs/Armored Cars/Lt. Tanks: 1,000
  • APCs/Recce/Scouts/Half-Tracks: 680+
  • SP Artillery: 185
  • Towed Artillery: 416
  • MRLs: 126
  • Mortars: 330
  • AA Guns: 895
  • Lt. SAM Launchers: 1,000+
• Military Spending and Arms Imports (1984-1994): Military spending and arms imports were on the rise, with a notable increase in the 1990s.
• Internal Security Force Spending (1984-1995): Spending on internal security forces saw a sharp decline in arms imports.
• Arms Agreements and Deliveries (1987-1997): Major suppliers included Gulf states, Arab-Israeli states, and Western European countries.
• Trend in Deliveries (1973-1994): Arms deliveries to Algeria showed a steady increase, especially from the 1980s to the 1990s.
• Supplier Share Trends: The share of arms imports from different regions, including the Gulf and Western Europe, showed changes before and after the Gulf War.

Libya

• Military Manpower (1975-1999): The total military manpower increased, with a notable rise in active conscripts and paramilitary forces.
• Major Military Equipment (1999):
  • Main Battle Tanks: 2,025
  • AIFVs/Armored Cars/Lt. Tanks: 1,630
  • APCs/Recce/Scouts/Half-Tracks: 990
  • ATGM Launchers: 3,000
  • SP Artillery: 450
  • Towed Artillery: 720
  • MRLs: 700
  • Mortars: -
  • SSM Launchers: 120
  • AA Guns: 600
  • Lt. SAM Launchers: 2,000+
• Military Spending and Arms Imports (1984-1994): Military spending and arms imports were relatively stable, with some fluctuations.
• Trend in Deliveries (1973-1994): Arms deliveries to Libya decreased over time, especially after the Gulf War.
• Supplier Share Trends: The share of arms imports from different regions, including the Gulf and Western Europe, showed changes before and after the Gulf War.

Main Points and Trends

• Military Manpower Growth: All three countries saw an increase in total military manpower over the period, with notable differences in the distribution between active and reserve forces.
• Equipment Development: The number of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery systems increased, especially in the 1980s and 1990s.
• Military Spending: Military spending and arms imports fluctuated over time, with some periods of increase and others of decline.
• War Affordability: Morocco's war against the Polisario became slightly more affordable over time.
• Arms Imports: The trend in arms imports showed a decline in the 1990s, especially for Morocco and Libya.
• Supplier Share: The share of arms imports from different regions changed, with the US and France being significant suppliers.

Key Information

• Morocco:
  • Defense Budget: Increased from 0.190 billion in 1975 to 1.4 billion in 1999.
  • Active Manpower: Increased from 61,000 in 1975 to 196,300 in 1999.
  • Arms Imports: Delivered 100 million dollars in 1999.
• Algeria:
  • Defense Budget: Increased from 0.285 billion in 1975 to 1.9 billion in 1999.
  • Active Manpower: Increased from 63,000 in 1975 to 122,000 in 1999.
  • Arms Imports: Delivered 700 million dollars in 1999.
• Libya:
  • Defense Budget: Increased from 0.203 billion in 1975 to 1.3 billion in 1999.
  • Active Manpower: Increased from 32,000 in 1975 to 65,000 in 1999.
  • Arms Imports: Delivered 30 million dollars in 1999.

Conclusion

The report highlights the evolution of military capabilities and spending in Morocco, Algeria, and Libya from 1975 to 1999. It provides a detailed overview of manpower trends, equipment development, and arms imports, emphasizing the role of major suppliers and the impact of the Gulf War on arms market dynamics. The data shows that while all three countries saw increases in military manpower and equipment, their military spending and arms imports varied significantly over time.