战略与国际研究中心-Net-Assessments-of-the-Middle-East-Military-Balance-Arab

Summary of "Military Balance in the Middle East - V"

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the military balance between Israel and the Arab states in the Middle East, focusing on the period from 1973 to 1999. It includes comparative data on military manpower, land forces, air and land-based air defense, and naval forces, highlighting both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of each state's military capabilities.

Key Points

Military Manpower

• Total Active Manpower:

  • Israel: 175,000
  • Syria: 320,000
  • Jordan: 104,500
  • Egypt: 450,000
  • Lebanon: 55,100

• Total Reserve Manpower:

  • Israel: 430,000
  • Syria: 500,000
  • Jordan: 30,000
  • Egypt: 254,000
  • Lebanon: -

• Total Manpower:

  • Israel: 605,000
  • Syria: 820,000
  • Jordan: 134,500
  • Egypt: 704,000
  • Lebanon: -

• Paramilitary Forces:

  • Israel: 6,050
  • Syria: 8,000+
  • Jordan: 10,000
  • Egypt: 230,000
  • Lebanon: 13,000

Land Forces

• Active Manpower:

  • Israel: 134,000
  • Syria: 215,000
  • Jordan: 90,000
  • Egypt: 320,000
  • Lebanon: 53,300

• Main Battle Tanks (Fixed & Storage):

  • Israel: 4,300
  • Syria: 4,600
  • Jordan: 1,217
  • Egypt: 3,700
  • Lebanon: 315

• Light Tanks, APCs, and Other Armored Fighting Vehicles:

  • Israel: 400 (AIFVs) + 5,980 (APCs/Recce/Scouts) = 6,380
  • Syria: 3,010 (AIFVs) + 1,500 (APCs/Recce/Scouts) = 4,510
  • Jordan: 224 (AIFVs) + 1,100 (APCs/Recce/Scouts) = 1,324
  • Egypt: 982 (AIFVs) + 2,664 (APCs/Recce/Scouts) = 3,646
  • Lebanon: 185 (AIFVs) + 895 (APCs/Recce/Scouts) = 1,080

• Artillery:

  • Israel: 1,710
  • Syria: 2,560
  • Jordan: 485
  • Egypt: 1,543
  • Lebanon: 180

• Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRLs):

  • Israel: 296
  • Syria: 480
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 296
  • Lebanon: 30

Air and Land-Based Air Defense

• Active Air Force Manpower:

  • Israel: 32,000
  • Syria: 40,000
  • Jordan: 13,500
  • Egypt: 30,000
  • Lebanon: 800

• Active Air Defense Command:

  • Israel: 0
  • Syria: 60,000
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 80,000
  • Lebanon: 0

• Air Force Reserve Manpower:

  • Israel: 55,000
  • Syria: 92,000
  • Jordan: -
  • Egypt: 90,000
  • Lebanon: -

• Air Defense Command Reserve Manpower:

  • Israel: 0
  • Syria: -
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 70,000
  • Lebanon: 0

• Fighter/FGA/Recce Aircraft:

  • Israel: 481
  • Syria: 589
  • Jordan: 93
  • Egypt: 585
  • Lebanon: 3

• Attack/Armed Helicopters:

  • Israel: 129
  • Syria: 72
  • Jordan: 16
  • Egypt: 125
  • Lebanon: 4

• SAM Batteries:

  • Israel: 20
  • Syria: 130
  • Jordan: 14
  • Egypt: 38+
  • Lebanon: 0

• Heavy SAM Launchers:

  • Israel: 79
  • Syria: 650
  • Jordan: 80
  • Egypt: 628
  • Lebanon: 0

• Medium SAM Launchers:

  • Israel: 0
  • Syria: 108
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 36-54
  • Lebanon: 0

Naval Forces

• Active Manpower:

  • Israel: 9,000
  • Syria: 5,000
  • Jordan: 480
  • Egypt: 20,000
  • Lebanon: 1,100

• Total Manpower:

  • Israel: 10,000-12,000
  • Syria: 14,000
  • Jordan: 480
  • Egypt: 34,000
  • Lebanon: 1,100

• Submarines:

  • Israel: 3
  • Syria: 3
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 4
  • Lebanon: 0

• Destroyers/Frigates/Corvettes:

  • Israel: 3
  • Syria: 4
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 9
  • Lebanon: 0

• Missile:

  • Israel: 3
  • Syria: 2
  • Jordan: 0
  • Egypt: 9
  • Lebanon: 0

Qualitative and Strategic Analysis

• Qualitative Edge: Israel has a significant qualitative edge in military technology, training, and C4I/BM systems, which are critical for modern warfare.
• Training and Readiness: Arab states generally lack the quality of training, experience, and cohesion necessary to effectively use modern equipment.
• Conscript Systems: Conscript forces in Arab states are underfunded and not taken seriously, leading to low combat effectiveness.
• Reserve Systems: Most Arab reserve forces are not well-equipped or trained, and Israel's reserve system is also under strain.
• Political and Strategic Factors: Political stability and strategic focus in Israel reinforce its military edge, while Arab states face internal security and low-intensity conflict challenges that degrade their overall military capabilities.
• Arab-Israeli Balance: Despite Israel's qualitative edge, the Arab states retain a significant numerical advantage, especially in land forces and manpower.

Main Viewpoints

• Numerical Advantage: Arab states maintain a large numerical advantage in military forces, particularly in land and manpower.
• Qualitative Disparity: Israel's superior training, technology, and C4I/BM systems provide it with a significant qualitative edge.
• Training and Experience: The lack of training and experience among Arab forces, especially conscripts, significantly affects their combat effectiveness.
• Strategic Limitations: Arab military forces are constrained by internal security commitments and lack of modernization, reducing their overall effectiveness.
• Equipment Quality: While quantity matters, the quality of equipment, particularly in tanks and artillery, is increasingly important in modern warfare.
• Modernization Gaps: Many Arab states, including Syria and Jordan, have not modernized their air forces or attack helicopter training, making them less effective compared to Israel.

Key Information

• Arab-Israeli Manpower Trends: Arab states have larger populations and thus more potential military manpower, but the quality of this manpower is generally lower.
• Military Budgets: Israel has a higher defense budget compared to Arab states, which affects its ability to maintain modern forces.
• Equipment Types: Israel has a more advanced mix of equipment, including modern tanks, artillery, and air defense systems.
• Strategic Context: The peace process and internal security challenges affect the readiness and effectiveness of Arab military forces.
• Technology and Training: Israel's investment in technology and training is a major factor in its qualitative military advantage.
• C4I/BM Systems: These systems are crucial for modern warfare and are more developed in Israel than in Arab states.

This summary highlights the complex military balance in the Middle East, emphasizing that while Arab states have a numerical advantage, Israel's qualitative edge in technology, training, and command and control systems provides it with a strategic advantage in modern warfare.