战略与国际研究中心-Net-Assessments-of-the-Middle-East-Military-Balance_-Overview-of-North-Africa_48页_176kb

Summary of Military Balance in the Middle East - II

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the military balance in North Africa from 1984 to 1999, focusing on military expenditures, arms transfers, conventional forces, and qualitative trends. It highlights the region's shift from military build-up to decline, with most countries prioritizing internal security over external military ambitions.

Main Points

• Military Decline: Most North African countries have seen a decline in military activity and modernization efforts. Internal security concerns have taken precedence over regional military ambitions.
• Regional Conflicts: The primary regional conflict is between Morocco and the Polisario, with Morocco gaining the upper hand. Other conflicts, such as those in Mauritania, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, are internal in nature.
• Arms Proliferation: Libya is identified as a "wild card" due to its poor management of arms proliferation, which poses a minor threat. Europe's concern about immigration is highlighted as a more significant regional issue.
• Military Modernization Challenges: Morocco and Tunisia have relatively modern forces tailored to their needs, while Algeria and Libya have outdated and obsolete equipment, with insufficient investment in modernization.
• Military Spending Trends: North African military spending and arms imports have declined sharply relative to economic growth and government budgets, with military expenditures as a small percentage of GNP and government spending.

Key Information

Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers

• 1999 Defense Budgets (in current billions of US dollars):

  • Morocco: $1.4 billion
  • Algeria: $1.9 billion
  • Libya: $1.3 billion
  • Tunisia: $0.34 billion
  • Egypt: $2.8 billion

• Arms Imports (1994–1997):

  • New Orders: Morocco (400M), Algeria (1,000M), Libya (100M), Tunisia (-50M), Egypt (4,900M)
  • Deliveries: Morocco (100M), Algeria (700M), Libya (30M), Tunisia (200M), Egypt (5,900M)

• Mobilization Base:

  • Men Ages 13–17: Morocco (1,690,000), Algeria (1,891,000), Libya (350,000), Tunisia (514,000), Egypt (3,486,000)
  • Men Ages 18–22: Morocco (1,526,000), Algeria (1,693,000), Libya (291,000), Tunisia (478,000), Egypt (3,026,000)

• Total Active Manpower (in thousands):

  • Morocco: 196,300
  • Algeria: 122,000
  • Libya: 65,000
  • Tunisia: 35,000
  • Egypt: 450,000

• Total Reserve Manpower (in thousands):

  • Morocco: 150,000
  • Algeria: 150,000
  • Libya: 40,000
  • Tunisia: 12,000
  • Egypt: 254,000

• Paramilitary Forces:

  • Morocco: 42,000
  • Algeria: 146,200
  • Libya: -
  • Tunisia: 12,000
  • Egypt: 230,000

Military Equipment

• Main Battle Tanks:

  • Morocco: 524
  • Algeria: 951
  • Libya: 985 (1,040 total, including storage)
  • Tunisia: 84
  • Egypt: 3,700

• Armored Fighting Vehicles (AIFVs, APCs, etc.):

  • Morocco: 559
  • Algeria: 1,000
  • Libya: 1,630 (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 114
  • Egypt: 982

• Self-Propelled Artillery:

  • Morocco: 167
  • Algeria: 185
  • Libya: 450 (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 276

• Towed Artillery:

  • Morocco: 190
  • Algeria: 416
  • Libya: 720 (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 117
  • Egypt: 971

• Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRLs):

  • Morocco: 39
  • Algeria: 126
  • Libya: 700 (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 296

• Mortars:

  • Morocco: 1,700
  • Algeria: 330
  • Libya: -
  • Tunisia: 161
  • Egypt: 2,400

• Surface-to-Surface Missiles (SSMs):

  • Morocco: 0
  • Algeria: -
  • Libya: 120
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 21

• Anti-Aircraft (AA) Guns:

  • Morocco: 425
  • Algeria: 895
  • Libya: 600+ (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 115
  • Egypt: 1,677

• Light SAM Launchers:

  • Morocco: 107
  • Algeria: 1,000+
  • Libya: 2,500+ (including storage)
  • Tunisia: 73
  • Egypt: 2,046

Air and Air Defense Forces

• Active Manpower:

  • Morocco: 13,500
  • Algeria: 10,000
  • Libya: 22,000
  • Tunisia: 3,500
  • Egypt: 110,000

• Combat Capable Aircraft:

  • Morocco: 89
  • Algeria: 181
  • Libya: 420
  • Tunisia: 44
  • Egypt: 585

• Fighter/FGA/Reconnaissance Aircraft:

  • Morocco: 15
  • Algeria: 110
  • Libya: 212
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 375

• Airborne Early Warning (AEW) and Electronic Warfare (EW) Aircraft:

  • Morocco: 3
  • Algeria: 0
  • Libya: 0
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 10

• Fixed Wing and Helicopter:

  • Morocco: 3
  • Algeria: -
  • Libya: -
  • Tunisia: -
  • Egypt: 6

• Land-Based Air Defense Systems:

  • Morocco: -
  • Algeria: -
  • Libya: -
  • Tunisia: -
  • Egypt: -

Naval Forces

• Active Manpower:

  • Morocco: 7,800
  • Algeria: 7,000
  • Libya: 8,000
  • Tunisia: 4,500
  • Egypt: 20,000

• Submarines:

  • Morocco: 0
  • Algeria: 2
  • Libya: 2
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 4

• Destroyers/Frigates/Corvettes:

  • Morocco: 1
  • Algeria: 6
  • Libya: 7
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 9

• Missile Patrol Vessels:

  • Morocco: 4
  • Algeria: 11
  • Libya: 21
  • Tunisia: 6
  • Egypt: 24

• Coastal/Inshore Patrol Vessels:

  • Morocco: 23
  • Algeria: 5
  • Libya: 8
  • Tunisia: 14
  • Egypt: 18

• Mine Vessels:

  • Morocco: 0
  • Algeria: 11
  • Libya: 8
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 13

• Amphibious Ships:

  • Morocco: 4
  • Algeria: 3
  • Libya: 5
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 12

• Landing Craft/Light Support:

  • Morocco: 4
  • Algeria: 3
  • Libya: 10
  • Tunisia: 3
  • Egypt: 20

• ASW/Combat Helicopters:

  • Morocco: 0
  • Algeria: 0
  • Libya: 32
  • Tunisia: 0
  • Egypt: 24

Arms Agreements and Deliveries

• Arms Agreements and Deliveries by Source (1988–1997):

  • Morocco: Agreements (US: 100M, Russia: 0, China: 0, West Europe: 100M, Other Europe: 300M, All Other: 0), Deliveries (US: 200M, Russia: 0, China: 0, West Europe: 100M, Other Europe: 300M, All Other: 0)
  • Algeria: Agreements (US: 0, Russia: 600M, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 100M, All Other: 0), Deliveries (US: 0, Russia: 1,400M, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 400M, All Other: 0)
  • Tunisia: Agreements (US: 100M, Russia: 0, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 0, All Other: 0), Deliveries (US: 100M, Russia: 0, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 0, All Other: 0)
  • Libya: Agreements (US: 0, Russia: 2,100M, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 400M, All Other: 400M), Deliveries (US: 0, Russia: 1,500M, China: 100M, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 200M, All Other: 200M)
  • Egypt: Agreements (US: 6,500M, Russia: 200M, China: 0, West Europe: 0, Other Europe: 100M, All Other: 200M), Deliveries (US: 1,900M, Russia: 500M, China: 100M, West Europe: 100M, Other Europe: 200M, All Other: 200M)

• Trend in New Agreements by North African Buyer:

  • Before and after the Gulf War, new agreements have decreased, with most under $50 million or nil.

Military Manpower and Demographics

• Males Between 13 and 17 (in thousands):

  • Algeria: 1,860,000
  • Libya: 350,000
  • Morocco: 1,690,000
  • Tunisia: 514,000
  • Egypt: 3,486,000

• Males Between 18 and 22 (in thousands):

  • Algeria: 1,646,000
  • Libya: 291,000
  • Morocco: 1,526,000
  • Tunisia: 478,000
  • Egypt: 3,025,000

• Total Military Manpower (in thousands):

  • Algeria: 7,391,946
  • Libya: 1,170,100
  • Morocco: 7,541,745
  • Tunisia: 2,354,513
  • Egypt: 16,530,460

• Military Manpower by Service (in thousands):

  • Algeria: 124,000
  • Libya: 65,000
  • Morocco: 196,300
  • Tunisia: 35,000
  • Egypt: 450,000

Conclusion

The North African military balance is characterized by a significant decline in military spending and arms imports relative to economic growth and government budgets. Most countries have shifted focus from external threats to internal security, with military forces often being outdated and underfunded. The region's military modernization efforts are limited, and while some countries like Morocco and Tunisia maintain relatively modern forces, others such as Algeria and Libya face severe challenges in maintaining operational readiness. The overall military expenditures and arms transfers are small by global standards, indicating a lack of substantial military investment in the region.