斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Military-spending-and-arms-imports-by-Iran-Saudi-Arabia-Qatar-and-the-UAE_8页_608kb

Military Spending and Arms Imports by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE

Introduction

Tense relations between Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are a significant concern for regional and international stability. These states are deeply involved in various conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, and they use military power as a key tool to assert influence. The document analyzes military expenditure and arms imports of these four states between 1994 and 2018, highlighting trends, patterns, and the implications of their military build-up on regional security.

Key Facts

• Military Spending as a Share of GDP: All four countries have high levels of military spending relative to their GDP, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE showing the most significant increases.
• Global Military Spending: In 2018, Saudi Arabia was the third-largest military spender globally, with $67.6 billion, while Iran spent $13.2 billion, which was 2.7% of its GDP.
• Arms Imports: Saudi Arabia was the largest arms importer in the world from 2014 to 2018, followed by the UAE and Qatar. Iran's arms imports were much lower due to sanctions and economic constraints.
• Transparency Issues: There is limited or no transparency in military spending data for Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, while Iran's data is more available but still incomplete.

Iran

• Military Expenditure Trends: Iran's military spending peaked in 2006 and then fell by 30% between 2006 and 2014, largely due to sanctions. It rose by 25% between 2015 and 2017, but declined again in 2018 to $13.2 billion.
• Arms Imports: Iran's arms imports were significantly lower than those of its Gulf neighbors. In 2009–2018, its total arms imports were only 3.5% of Saudi Arabia's. Most of its arms came from Russia and China.
• Domestic Production: Iran has developed and produced certain types of major arms, including ballistic missiles and drones, which helps offset its restricted imports.
• Transparency Concerns: Despite public reporting, there are questions about whether all military-related spending is included in official figures, particularly regarding the Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC).

Saudi Arabia

• Military Expenditure Trends: Saudi Arabia's military spending increased significantly in three periods: 1996–1998, 2003–2007, and 2011–2015. In 2018, it was 8.8% of GDP, the highest among the four states.
• Arms Imports: Saudi Arabia was the largest arms importer in the world from 2014 to 2018. Its imports included advanced combat aircraft (F-15SA, Typhoon), tanks, and air and missile defense systems (Patriot PAC-3, THAAD).
• Modernization Efforts: The country has modernized and expanded its land and naval forces, with significant procurement of armored vehicles, frigates, and patrol boats.
• Final Assembly: Some of the imported arms are now being assembled in Saudi Arabia, indicating a shift towards domestic integration of military technology.

Qatar

• Military Expenditure Trends: Qatar's military spending was not publicly reported after 2010. However, data from the period 2002–2010 shows it was much lower than the other three countries.
• Arms Imports: Between 2009–13 and 2014–18, Qatar's arms imports increased by 225%. Major suppliers included the USA, Germany, and France.
• Modernization: Qatar has significantly modernized its armed forces, acquiring advanced combat aircraft (F-15QA, Typhoon, Rafale), frigates, and armored vehicles.
• Transparency Issues: Qatar does not publicly report on its military spending, and the exact figures remain uncertain.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• Military Expenditure Trends: The UAE's military spending increased by 136% between 2006 and 2014. In 2014, it was $22.8 billion, or 5.6% of GDP.
• Arms Imports: The UAE was the fifth-largest arms importer globally in the period 2009–2018. It has focused on enhancing the reach and capabilities of its armed forces with advanced aircraft, transport planes, and corvettes.
• Defense Spending: The UAE's defense budget is reported by the Ministry of Defence, but it only covers a small portion of total military spending. The rest is estimated using data from the IMF and SIPRI.
• Arms Industry: The UAE has invested in its arms industry, assembling armored vehicles and missiles from South Africa and corvettes from France.

Military Expenditure Transparency

• Data Sources: SIPRI uses official government data to estimate military spending, but this data is not always reliable or transparent.
• Transparency Issues: Qatar and the UAE do not publicly report on their military spending. Saudi Arabia's data is limited and not fully broken down, while Iran's data is more comprehensive but still incomplete.
• IRGC Funding: There are concerns that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) may have access to unreported funds, potentially affecting military spending figures.

Conclusion

The four Gulf states—Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—have all significantly increased their military spending and arms imports over the past 15 years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built advanced and diverse military capabilities, while Iran's military build-up has been more constrained due to sanctions and economic issues. The lack of transparency in military spending data across these countries raises concerns about the accuracy of reported figures and the potential for unaccounted military activities. These developments contribute to the volatile security situation in the Middle East and highlight the growing military asymmetry between the Gulf states and Iran.