战略与国际研究中心-Saudi-Military-Forces-and-the-Gulf_42页_213kb

Summary of Saudi Military Forces and the Gulf

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the military balance in the Gulf region, with a focus on Saudi Arabia, as of 1999. It highlights the evolving military capabilities, spending trends, arms imports, and the impact of the Gulf War on regional dynamics. The report is authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and outlines both the military strengths and weaknesses of the Gulf states.

Main Points

Military Balance in the Gulf

• Iraq remains the most effective military power in the Gulf despite losing 40-60% of its operational inventory during the Gulf War.
• Iraq's military recovery has been limited due to lack of funding, spare parts, and production capabilities.
• Iran, although weakened during the Iran-Iraq War, has significantly recovered and now has a large military force.
• Iran's modernization efforts have been insufficient, particularly in areas like airborne sensors, C4I/BM, and electronic warfare.
• No Southern Gulf state has significantly expanded its ground forces since the Gulf War, with Saudi Arabia being the exception in building a strong air force.

Sources of Instability

• Political and military threats from Iran and Iraq.
• Authoritarian regimes and lack of rule of law.
• Human rights violations and high population growth.
• Religious divisions (Sunni vs. Shi'ite).
• Tribalism, displacement, and regionalism.
• Social and economic issues including over-reliance on foreign labor, infrastructure breakdown, and mismanagement of the agricultural sector.
• Excessive military spending and arms imports.
• Proliferation of advanced conventional weapons and technologies.
• Border disputes.

Key Military Capabilities and Spending

Military Expenditures (1983-1995)

• The data shows a significant increase in military spending across the Gulf states.
• Saudi Arabia has the highest military expenditures, reflecting its commitment to maintaining a strong military presence.

Arms Imports (1986-1996)

• Arms imports have declined sharply in constant dollars after 1990, mainly due to reduced purchases by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia has a boom and bust pattern in arms imports, often prioritizing the US market and reducing orders from Europe and the PRC.
• Kuwait and UAE also show a significant drop in arms imports after the Gulf War.

Military Manpower and Equipment (1999)

• Total active military manpower in the Gulf states is estimated at around 1.28 million.
• Saudi Arabia has the largest military force in the region with 161,500 active military personnel.
• Iran has the largest number of tanks (1,410) and combat aircraft (307), but much of its equipment is outdated.
• Iraq has a large number of tanks (2,700) and combat aircraft (353), but its military is not well-equipped for modern warfare.
• Saudi Arabia has the highest number of combat aircraft (432) and significant numbers of tanks (1,055) and APCs (3,380).
• UAE and Kuwait have smaller but still substantial military capabilities.

Saudi Arabia's Military Overview

Economic Context

• Saudi Arabia's military spending is very high relative to its central government budget, which is unusual for the region.
• Despite a decline in military spending per capita, the GDP per capita has not grown significantly, leading to a higher proportion of military expenditure.
• The Gulf War increased Saudi oil export revenues, but the burden of funding the war did not critically affect the economy.

Arms Imports

• Saudi Arabia is a major arms importer, but its actual annual expenditures are relatively constant.
• The country has shifted its arms purchases heavily towards the US since 1991.
• Arms orders have decreased post-Gulf War, but deliveries have remained relatively stable.
• New arms agreements dropped from $26.7 billion during 1989-1992 to $20.3 billion during 1993-1996.

Challenges

• Sustainability and interoperability issues are significant due to lack of standardization and overlapping purchases from different suppliers.
• Training and maintenance have been neglected, leading to a backlog of orders and serious operational challenges.
• Saudi Arabia has ambitious future purchase plans, but is currently saturated in terms of cash flow and absorption capacity.

Conclusion

The Gulf region is characterized by military instability and economic pressures, with Saudi Arabia being the dominant military power. Despite significant military investments, interoperability and sustainability remain major issues. Iran and Iraq continue to pose threats, although both have faced challenges in modernizing their forces. Arms proliferation and regional rivalries further complicate the military balance, with no substantial progress in integrating the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) militaries.