UNDP-变革收费_气候行动中可再生能源的案例（英）-2025_116页_15mb

Core Chapter: Urges policymakers to merge ambitious renewable energy goals with broader socio-economic policies to advance human development and meet climate targets. The "RA+SDG" scenario projects universal electricity access, a ~$48T GDP boost by 2060, and $20.4T cumulative savings through synergistic policies.

Key Findings & Shift Trajectories:

• Gap in Current Policies: By 2060, global warming hits ~2.6°C without change (vs. 1.5°C target). 400M remain in extreme poverty; food & energy access still limited.
• Renewable Dominance Needed: Energy mix must reach ~88% renewables by 2060, tripling capacity (~3,700 GW to ~10,500 GW) to align with Paris goals (IPCC & IEA targets).
• Economic Transformation: Transition requires $2.5–$3.4T avg. renewable investments; RA/RA+SDG scenarios yield ~$17–$20T savings vs. Base Case via efficiency + declining LCOE ($4.5–$6.9 cents/kWh for ~RA+SDG solar, down from ~9–18 cents in 2024).
• Energy Justice: Untreated structural barriers persist (infrastructure, financing); DRE enhances equity in off-grid regions.

Recommendations (4 Ps):

1. Policies: Integrate renewable targets into NDCs/SDGs; ensure gender-responsive & development-aligned.
2. Pricing: Redirect fossil subsidies ($5.2T Base Case) toward renewables; derisk investments via green finance/cooperation.

Country Cases (RA+SDG Impact):

• Indonesia: Eradicates poverty by 2060 vs. 0.2% (Base Case) ($7T off-grid evaporation).
• Ecuador/Türkiye/Nigeria: Show improvements in electricity access & reduced emissions, with each achieving >99% access vs. broader regional averages.

System Integration & Costs: High upfront investment in grid flexibility, electrification, & society-wide efficiency are essential.

Method/Model Notes: IFs model simulates 188 countries. Projections vary by methodology (e.g., IRENA/IEA) but concur on ~$2T/yr renewable need by 2030.