20160718-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_19页_776kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (July 18, 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets in 2016, with outlooks for 2017. It includes detailed forecasts for production, trade, and prices, as well as insights into market trends and challenges. The report also touches on the impact of the UK's potential withdrawal from the EU on U.S. meat and dairy trade, and discusses the role of feed prices and domestic demand in shaping the outlook for dairy products.

Main Points

Cattle/Beef

Global Market Position: The U.S. has a competitive advantage in beef production, leading to increased market share in Japan and other countries.
Export Trends: U.S. beef exports rose 14% in May 2016, with significant increases to Japan (+29%), Mexico (+39%), and South Korea (+61%). Exports to Canada were also modestly higher.
Import Trends: U.S. beef imports declined by about 10% in May 2016, with major declines from Australia, Brazil, and Uruguay.
Choice/Select Spread: The spread reached a record high in June, driven by strong domestic demand for Choice beef, not by supply constraints.
Feedlot Trends: Cattle on feed for 120 days or more have decreased from previous years, with lighter carcass weights due to lower feed costs, weather, and disease.
2016 Forecast: U.S. beef exports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds, up 9% from 2015. Imports are forecast at 2.9 billion pounds.
2017 Outlook: Beef exports are expected to increase to 2.6 billion pounds, while imports are forecast to remain at 2.6 billion pounds.

Dairy

Price Trends: Dairy prices rose in June, with all-milk prices forecast at $15.55-$15.85 per cwt in 2016, up from $14.95-$15.35.
2017 Forecast: All-milk prices are expected to rise further to $15.70-$16.70 per cwt. Cheese, butter, NDM, and dry whey prices are forecast to increase.
Production and Imports: Milk production in 2016 is forecast at 212.4 billion pounds, a slight decrease from last month. Imports are forecast at 6.8 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis, while exports are forecast at 8.4 billion pounds.
Stocks: Ending stocks for dairy products are expected to increase, with NDM ending stocks down 9.9% in May 2016.

Pork/Hogs

Production Trends: Pork production in the first half of 2016 was largely unchanged, but prices rose due to strong demand and reduced supply.
Export Growth: U.S. pork exports increased by 1% year-over-year in May, with significant gains to China/Hong Kong.
Feed Costs: Lower feed costs supported positive returns for the pork sector despite a 3.3% decline in average hog prices.
Quarterly Forecasts: Third-quarter pork production is expected to be 6.0 billion pounds, up 3.4% from 2015. Fourth-quarter production is forecast at 6.6 billion pounds, up 3%.
Hog Prices: Hog prices are expected to average $53-$55 in the third quarter and $41-$45 in the fourth, both lower than the previous year.

Poultry

Production Recovery: Poultry production in May 2016 increased by 15% compared to the previous year, driven by recovery from HPAI-related declines in 2015.
Broiler Production: Broiler production forecasts for 2016 were increased by 35 million dozen. Exports strengthened, especially to South Korea, following the lifting of import bans.
Turkey Production: Turkey production in May increased by 15%, with 20.2 million birds slaughtered. Exports to Mexico and Hong Kong saw significant growth.
Egg Production: Table egg production in May increased by 6% compared to the previous year, recovering from 2015's double-digit declines. The table egg flock is expected to continue growing in 2016 and 2017.
Turkey Parts Prices: Prices for turkey parts remained under downward pressure, with declines ranging from 15% for drumsticks to over 65% for full-cut wings.

Key Information

UK-EU Trade Impact: The UK is a strong net importer of meat and dairy, with the majority of imports coming from EU member nations. The terms and timing of the UK's withdrawal from the EU remain uncertain.
Feed Prices: Feed price forecasts for 2016/17 have been lowered, with corn prices at $3.60-$3.70 per bushel and soybean meal at $325-$365 per short ton.
Seasonal Trends: Seasonal patterns affect the Choice/Select spread and carcass weights, with the spread narrowing in July and dressed weights expected to rise in the coming quarters.
Domestic Demand: High domestic demand and improving international markets are expected to support higher dairy product prices in 2016 and 2017.

Outlook

Cattle/Beef: Continued strong domestic demand and competitive production advantage are expected to support export growth and price increases.
Dairy: Prices are forecast to remain elevated due to robust domestic demand and improving international markets.
Pork/Hogs: Slight production increases and stable export demand are expected to lead to a modest improvement in returns.
Poultry: Broiler and turkey production is expected to continue growing, with export opportunities expanding. Egg production is forecast to recover further in 2016 and 2017.

Tables and Data Sources

Data Sources: USDA's Economic Research Service, Agricultural Marketing Service, and National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Key Tables:
- U.S. beef exports and imports
- U.S. pork exports and production
- Turkey production and export data
- Egg production and trade data