2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Dominican_Republic_Second_and_Third_Reviews_Under_the_Stand_94页_1mb

Dominican Republic: Second and Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Applicability

Core Content Overview

The Dominican Republic's economic recovery and policy implementation were reviewed under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in the context of the global financial crisis. The IMF supported the country's efforts to stabilize its economy, strengthen fiscal sustainability, and implement structural reforms. The SBA, approved in November 2009, was a 28-month program aimed at reducing procyclicality and supporting medium-term growth.

Main Objectives and Program Structure

• The SBA program was structured in two phases:

  • First Phase (through mid-2010): Focus on countercyclical measures to stabilize the economy.
  • Second Phase (through early-2012): Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to enhance long-term sustainability and growth.

• The second review was delayed due to the need for the authorities to finalize policies for the second half of 2010.

Macroeconomic Developments

• GDP Growth: The economy showed strong recovery, with real GDP growth of 7.5% in the first half of 2010 (yoy), up from near stagnation in mid-2009.
• Exports: Increased by nearly 40% (excluding free trade zones) in the first half of 2010.
• Imports: Grew by over 25% (yoy) in the first half of 2010.
• Inflation: Headline inflation dropped to 5% (yoy) in August 2010, below the central bank's target of 6–7%. Core inflation remained at 3.5% (yoy).
• Unemployment: Fell to 14.5% in April 2010, down from 15% in October 2009.
• Tax Revenue: Expanded by over 12% in the first half of 2010, but still 0.4% of GDP below program projections due to weak income tax collections.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank (BCRD) maintained an accommodative stance, with the policy rate at 4% for 11 consecutive months in 2010.
• Credit to Private Sector: Increased by over 15% (yoy) in July 2010, indicating improved access to credit.
• Net International Reserves (NIR): Reached US$2.1 billion by end-August 2010, above program levels.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The consolidated public sector deficit in the first half of 2010 was 2.3% of GDP, 0.1% below program projections.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The government aimed to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2011 and narrow the external current account deficit to 6.5% of GDP.
• Capital Expenditures: Were significantly cut in the first half of 2009 but gradually increased in the second half of 2010.
• Electricity Subsidies: The Targeted Electricity Subsidy (BONOLUZ) and Blackout Reduction Program (PRA) were key components of the fiscal stimulus, but they were criticized for being less targeted than originally intended.
• Tax Exemptions: Remained a challenge, with the country ranking poorly in terms of tax effort.

Structural Reforms

• Electricity Reform: Progress was slower than expected, with electricity distribution companies (EDEs) and public electricity company (CDEEE) lagging in implementation.
• Tax Administration: Efforts to strengthen tax collection and reduce exemptions continued, although not as effectively as desired.
• Public Financial Management (PFM): The government aimed to improve PFM and align with Basel Core Principles (BCP).

External and Monetary Policies

• Exchange Rate: The peso depreciated at a moderate pace, but the euro's depreciation helped stabilize the nominal effective exchange rate.
• External Financing: The country re-entered international capital markets in April 2010 with a US$750 million sovereign bond at favorable terms, reducing reliance on local financing.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened to 8% of GDP in the first half of 2010 due to rising imports and declining remittances, but is expected to narrow in the second half of the year.

Political and Social Context

• Political Stability: The Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) won a strong majority in the 2010 legislative and municipal elections, ensuring continued support for the economic program.
• Social Conditions: Poverty decreased by about 3 percentage points in 2009 to 34.5%, and further reductions were expected in 2010.
• Social Tensions: Increased due to the influx of Haitian immigrants seeking jobs and social services, especially electricity.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff report supported the completion of the second and third SBA reviews and the 2011 program targets, citing positive macroeconomic performance.
• The program remains on track, with most performance criteria and structural benchmarks met, although progress in electricity reform and tax collection was slower than anticipated.

Key Documents and Information

• Staff Report: Completed on October 13, 2010, based on discussions with Dominican officials.
• Staff Supplement: Updated information on developments as of October 19, 2010.
• Informational Annex: Provided additional context and details.
• Press Release: Summarized the Executive Board's discussion on October 22, 2010.
• Letter of Intent (LOI) and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Were included in the package and separately released.

Summary of Key Metrics

Conclusion

The Dominican Republic made significant progress in its economic recovery, supported by the SBA program and improved access to international capital markets. While the program's second phase faced challenges, the overall outlook remained positive, with the staff endorsing the continuation of the program and the pursuit of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to ensure long-term stability and growth.