2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Ghana_Sixth_and_Seventh_Reviews_Under_the_Three_63页_1mb

Summary of Ghana's Sixth and Seventh Reviews Under the ECF Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the IMF staff report, press release, and statement by the Executive Director for Ghana regarding the sixth and seventh reviews under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which was approved in July 2009. The reviews were conducted in February–March 2012 and May 2012, with the staff report completed on July 2, 2012. The report assesses the program performance, fiscal and monetary policies, and structural reforms implemented by Ghana, while also addressing requests for waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria and extension of the arrangement.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Outlook

• Ghana experienced strong growth in 2011, with GDP growth of 14.5% driven by the onset of oil production.
• Inflation remained within the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) target range, but currency depreciation and increased public spending have raised macroeconomic risks.
• The current account deficit reached 9% of GDP, and foreign reserves were at $5.5 billion at the end of 2011, covering three months of imports.
• The cedi has depreciated rapidly, increasing inflationary pressures and foreign debt servicing costs.
• Fiscal discipline is under threat due to carry-over spending, higher-than-budgeted wage increases, and the reemergence of energy subsidies.
• External risks are linked to a global slowdown, which could affect commodity prices and foreign capital inflows.

2. Program Performance

• The sixth review (end-December 2011) met all quantitative performance criteria except for net arrears clearance.
• The seventh review (end-March 2012) missed fiscal deficit targets and net international reserves floor, with the latter falling short by $1.1 billion.
• Structural reforms have continued, but delays occurred due to challenges in financial systems integration, connectivity, and human resources.
• The government remains committed to completing the remaining reform agenda.

3. Fiscal Policy

• The primary fiscal deficit for 2012 is set at 0.1% of non-oil GDP, requiring a 1.8% adjustment compared to 2011.
• The cash deficit is projected at 6.7% of non-oil GDP, reflecting carry-over spending, arrears clearance, and higher interest payments.
• Wage increases and energy subsidies pose significant spending pressures, with the 18% base pay increase threatening to exceed the budget.
• The payroll audit is expected to generate savings of 0.7% of non-oil GDP, with full implementation by September 2012.
• The government has identified contingency measures (equivalent to 0.2% of non-oil GDP) to address potential shortfalls in revenue or additional spending pressures.

4. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The cedi has depreciated by 15% in the first five months of 2012, driven by loose liquidity conditions.
• The BoG has intervened to stabilize the currency, but this has reduced foreign reserves.
• Monetary policy has been tightened through three consecutive rate hikes.
• The inflation target is expected to approach the upper limit of the 5.7-11.7% range.
• The cedi is expected to stabilize by the end of 2012, with reserves recovering to end-2011 levels.

5. Financial Sector Policies

• The GIFMIS system (Ghana Integrated Financial Management Information System) is being implemented to improve public financial management.
• The system has faced delays due to operational challenges, but is on track for full implementation by August 2012.
• The transition to a treasury single account is being pursued to enhance liquidity and cash management.

6. Program Issues and Staff Appraisal

• The program objectives remain within reach with a tight policy stance.
• The IMF recommends completing the sixth and seventh reviews and extending the arrangement for final disbursements.
• The government is committed to fiscal discipline, revenue collection, and structural reforms.
• The mission emphasized the need for continued efforts to control inflation, manage public finances, and prevent new arrears.

Key Figures and Projections

Conclusion

The IMF staff report and Executive Board discussion highlight mixed program performance in 2012, with fiscal and structural challenges. Despite these, the program remains viable with tightened policies and ongoing reforms. The IMF recommends the completion of the sixth and seventh reviews and a short extension of the ECF arrangement to facilitate final disbursements. The government's commitment to fiscal discipline and structural reforms is acknowledged, but monitoring and implementation will be critical in meeting targets and ensuring macroeconomic stability.