国际能源署-核能新时代之路（英）-2025_102页_4mb

Nuclear Energy's New Era

• Global Demand: Electricity needs will surge (demand growth six times faster than overall energy by 2030), driving renewed interest in nuclear due to its clean, dispatchable power capabilities. Support from over 40 countries and tech advances (especially SMRs) support this growth.
• Opportunities & Growth: Nuclear's role in clean energy transitions is increasing, with plans for capacity tripling by 2050. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), targeting 120 GW by 2050, offer flexibility and lower costs but face policy and financing challenges.
• Financing & Investment: High upfront costs, long construction timelines, and risks are barriers. Public funding remains key, but unlocking private capital through de-risking instruments (like PPA, CfD) and improving cash flow predictability is crucial. SMRs could attract broader private sector participation due to smaller scale.
• Supply Chains & Competition: Concentrated uranium and enrichment markets pose challenges. Innovations (modular construction, digital tools) are key, with geopolitical diversification a priority to ensure affordable supply.
• Workforce & Safety: Training and workforce planning are vital for construction growth. Safety must remain paramount, with regulatory frameworks minimizing risks and ensuring public trust.
• Decommissioning: Addressing waste management and decommissioning costs, with countries like Sweden and Finland making progress on safe disposal facilities.
• Market Dynamics: Market leadership may shift: China overtakes the US for global capacity by 2030. Advanced economies aim to rebalance leadership via SMRs, while diverse supply chain strategies are essential.