> **来源:[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** HW Harris Williams # Nuclear Power Market Update THE PATH TO A NEW ERA FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY REPORT | Q4 2025 What's Included: 01 History & Overview of U.S. Nuclear Power: Gain a clear understanding of the history, characteristics, and trends of the nuclear power sector 02 Nuclear Market Tailwinds: Examine the demand, power considerations, and technology drivers fueling a resurgence in nuclear energy 03 Nuclear Market Participants and M&A Activity: Connect with our team to explore recent sector activity and key investment opportunities # History & Overview of Nuclear Power # Forward: Evolution of the Nuclear Market (Then vs. Now) The ongoing surge in global power demand is opening nuclear sector investment opportunities that were not contemplated three years ago # Previous Nuclear Power Market Update (Summer 2022) The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act established a regulatory precedent to provide financial support to existing nuclear reactors and slow decommissioning > By 2022, a consensus was formed that intermittent renewables alone were insufficient for decarbonization > Reactor restarts were not considered to be economically feasible Subsequent license renewals (SLRs) of nuclear plants were anticipated to drive significant activity for service providers across the nuclear landscape > Small modular reactors (SMRs) remained in pilot phase, with timing of commercialization unclear Read more on Harris Williams' prior insights of the market: # Current Nuclear Power Market Outlook > Major policy moves (IRA, ADVANCE Act, and 2025 executive orders) have been reinforced by a clear commitment from the current administration to deploy hundreds of billions in DOE lending authority for new nuclear builds > Grid demand is accelerating due to EV adoption, grid hardening, AI, and industrial onshoring, increasing the need for reliable, round-the-clock clean energy generation Rising grid demand is driving nuclear plant restarts including Palisades, Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly known as Three Mile Island), and Duane Arnold, and positioning uprates as a fast, cost-effective way to add carbon-neutral capacity (30 NRC-reported applications expected by 2030) > Seven subsequent license renewals have been issued since 2022, with 12 under NRC review and 23 expected to be submitted within the next five years > Small modular reactors and microreactors are rapidly moving to commercialization "US partners with Westinghouse, Cameco and Brookfield on $80B nuclear deployment." UTILITYDIVE Three Mile Island nuclear plant is reopening and selling its power to Microsoft. WRAL NEWS "SC has signed a letter of intent with Brookfield to build two [AP1000 reactors at the VC Summer site]." "Trump ordered the Defense Department to have [an advanced] reactor no later than Sept. 30, 2028." CNBC # The History and Essential Role of Nuclear Energy While nuclear power has been a critical energy input for $80+$ years, there has been a recent resurgence driven by growing need for high-capacity, low-emissions power # Nuclear Has Powered the U.S. for 80+ Years... # 1940s-1950s: Origins of Nuclear Power > Born out of the Manhattan Project, nuclear moved to civilian control in 1946 and produced its first electricity in 1951 Early milestones: first nuclear sub (1954) and first U.S. commercial plant (1958) # 1960s-1970s: Rapid Nuclear Power Expansion > Cold War made nuclear a strategic and economic asset Oyster Creek's 1969 turnkey plant proved cost-competitive and triggered hundreds of orders Energy crisis of 1970s reinforced nuclear as a critical domestic energy solution # 1980s-2010s: Stagnation and Decommissioning > Accidents at Three Mile Island (1979) and Chernobyl (1986) slowed growth, while cheap fossil fuels undercut economics leading to two-thirds of planned projects from the early 1970s being canceled Focus shifted to efficiency: Fleet performance improved from $\sim 70\%$ uptime in 1990 to $90\%+$ by 2000 > Push for a "nuclear renaissance" in the 2000s, but Fukushima (2011) added new mandatory safety requirements # 2020s: Revival of Nuclear Power Investment Vogtle Units 3 and 4 (2023-2024) showed that large-scale builds remain possible despite delays and overruns > SLRs are in full press to extend the existing fleet life and a new cycle of power uprates is beginning to increase capacity Planned restarts at the Palisades, Crane Clean Energy Center, and Duane Arnold plants are driven by hyperscalers' demand for carbon-neutral energy SMRs are gaining momentum as a more flexible, lower-risk option # And Remains the Nation's Most Reliable Source of Power... # The U.S. operates the world's largest, most resilient nuclear fleet powering nearly one-fifth of the nation's electricity 94 reactors at 54 sites form the backbone of U.S. nuclear power The nuclear fleet produced 779 TWh in 2023 - 19% of U.S. electricity and ~30% of global nuclear output at a >90% capacity factor > Nuclear power plants provide nearly $50\%$ of U.S. carbon-free electricity, operating at full power almost $95\%$ of the time With an average age of $>40$ years, most plants are planning to continue operations for $80+$ years Nuclear Meets All Key Power Generation Objectives <table><tr><td></td><td>Nuclear</td><td>CCGT1</td><td>Coal</td><td>Wind</td><td>Solar</td><td>Hydro</td></tr><tr><td>Baseload</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>✓</td></tr><tr><td>Capacity Factor</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>X</td></tr><tr><td>Low Emissions</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td></tr><tr><td>Additional Capacity</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td></tr><tr><td>Large-Scale Output</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>✓</td></tr><tr><td>Supply Chain Security</td><td>✓</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>X</td><td>✓</td></tr><tr><td>Avg. Cost of Electricity (US$/MWh)</td><td>~$40</td><td>~$80</td><td>~$100</td><td>~$70</td><td>~$95</td><td>~$90</td></tr></table> # With Surging Demand Igniting the Next Era of Nuclear Growth Policy Support: IRA (2022) provides long-term economic certainty while the ADVANCE Act (2024) streamlines NRC licensing and reduces regulatory risk > Electrification Surge: EVs, industrial loads, and building electrification are driving unprecedented demand for firm power Data Center Boom: Hyperscalers are turning to nuclear to secure 24/7 carbon-free power for AI and cloud growth SMR Adoption: Projected factory-built, modular reactors are reshaping deployment calculation with anticipated faster, lower-risk development from economies of scale Planned Cumulative Capacity (GWe) Planned Cumulative Nuclear Reactors 56 New Reactors Adding $\sim 8$ GWe of Capacity by 2035 # Nuclear Facility Life Cycle: An 80+ Year Journey With Predictable, Sustained Investment # Phase 1: Planning & Design (5-10 Years) - Projects begin with extensive site selection, environmental impact assessments, and reactor design, culminating in securing licenses from the NRC - Rigorous, multiyear process establishes project scope, safety requirements, and budget parameters # Phase 2: Development (5-15+ Years) - Construction represents the most capital-intensive stage, with new builds requiring $6-8B+ per unit before generating revenue Timeline spans from the first concrete pour to final commissioning, a period that often exceeds a decade before the plant enters commercial operation # Phase 3: Operation & Maintenance (40-80+ Years) - Once operational, a plant generates power continuously, with planned shutdowns every 18-24 months for refueling and routine maintenance - The asset demands predictable, mandatory, nondiscretionary upgrades to safety systems and components as required by the NRC, creating long-term investment requirements # Phase 4: License Renewals (Every 20 Years After Age 40) A nuclear plant is initially licensed to operate for 40 years and can be extended via a rigorous NRC renewal process to 60 years and then to 80 years via SLRs There is an increasing consensus to extend reactor lifespans a third time to operate beyond 80 years Each renewal application and implementation period is $10+$ years from beginning to end # Phase 5: Decommissioning (15-20+ Years) - The final stage involves safely removing the reactor from service, decontaminating the site, and managing used fuel While this is a multi-decade process, decommissioning costs are pre-funded through dedicated funds built during the plant's operating life, ensuring financial certainty for the end-of-life stage # Nuclear Market Tailwinds # Accelerating Demand for Secure, Resilient Energy, and the Nuclear Response Exploding power demand is outpacing the grid, creating a critical need for secure, consistent, carbon-free baseload power that only nuclear can provide # Unprecedented Demand: Rapid Surge in Electrification U.S. data center power demand is projected to double by 2030, reaching $\sim 35$ GW DOE projects 14M EVs on U.S. roads by 2030, requiring up to 100 TWh of annual power U.S. industrial electricity demand is projected to grow by $\sim 50\%$ by 2050 in IEA's Net Zero scenario IEA estimates building electrification will add $\sim 750$ TWh globally by 2050 Average U.S. interconnection wait times are 5+ years Projected U.S. Electricity Use (BkWh) This confluence of demand is creating a structural power deficit within the nation's aging grid infrastructure # The Secure Energy Dilemma: Renewables Fall Short Net-zero adoption is accelerating: $45\%$ of Fortune 500 companies now have targets, but there are inherent limitations of intermittent renewables Wind and solar are fundamentally intermittent, operating at low-capacity factors (25-35%) compared to the $90\%+$ reliability of nuclear This intermittency exposes the grid to blackout risks during periods of low sun or wind, a non-negotiable threat for modern economies Current battery storage technology is insufficient for multiday gaps, forcing reliance on fossil fuels as the only viable backup without firm, clean power In addition to issues of intermittency, renewable energy projects face significant challenges related to land use, siting, and permitting, all of which constrain the speed and scale of deployment 2024 Capacity Factor by Production Source # The Solution: Nuclear's Three-Pronged Response # Maximizing the Backbone of Nuclear Infrastructure > Nuclear's capacity factor mirrors the always-on demand of data centers, EVs, and industrials enabling stable, long-term PPAs Power uprates provide the fastest and most cost-effective way to expand baseload carbon-free power SLRs offer a path to retain the existing nuclear fleet, securing decades of proven, zero-emission power # Unlocking NearTerm Capacity Nuclear's extended refueling cycles and on-site storage insulate customers from the volatility of global energy supply chains that impact other energy sources Plant restarts and power uprates can add gigawatts of new, carbon-free capacity to the grid in just 2-3 years, bypassing the $5+$ year interconnection queue # Innovating for Future Demand SMRs and microreactors can be co-located directly at data centers or industrial parks, providing dedicated "behind-the-meter" power and avoiding interconnection delays # Maximizing the Backbone of Nuclear Infrastructure: License & Subsequent License Renewals The 80-year plant is the new market standard, securing irreplaceable zero-carbon baseload power while unlocking a predictable, capital expenditure cycle # License Renewal Overview U.S. nuclear plants are initially licensed for 40 years, with the ability to secure 20-year extensions through a rigorous, multiyear NRC review process These complex, once-in-a-generation applications require specialized nuclear engineering and consulting expertise often not found in-house, creating a predictable, high-value demand cycle for external service providers Each license renewal can catalyze about \(400 million in capital spending per plant on modernization and component replacement # The 80-Year Plant Is the New Standard A majority of the U.S. nuclear fleet was brought online during the 1970s boom; as a result, the SLR wave is just beginning (~60 years later) with 12 applications under NRC review and 23 more expected to be submitted over the next five years The U.S. fleet is aggressively pursuing SLRs to extend operational life from 60 to 80 years, with over $95\%$ of surveyed operators expecting to operate at least 80 years > Extending the operational life of the existing nuclear fleet from 40 to 60 years provided $330-500B in net economic benefits, factoring in electricity market value and avoided social costs of carbon 65% of Licenses Will Need to be Renewed in the Next Decade Cumulative % of Licenses Expiring by Year # Unlocking Near-Term Capacity: Plant Restarts & Power Uprates By reversing previous shutdowns and boosting existing output, operators can unlock near-term capacity far faster than any other clean alternative # The Commercial Reversal: Bringing Dormant Assets Back Online A wave of premature nuclear plant shutdowns occurred during the 2010s, driven by two key economic factors: (1) U.S. fracking boom flooded the market with cheap natural gas, making it challenging for many nuclear plants to compete on price; (2) the post-Fukushima regulatory environment mandated costly safety upgrades, rendering many plants economically unviable > Propelled by a structural shift in power demand, plant restarts have now become viable and are bringing shuttered facilities back online, unlocking capacity that was thought to be lost A wave of restarts is in process to add near-term capacity at the Palisades (Michigan), Crane Clean Energy Center (Pennsylvania), and Duane Arnold (Iowa) facilities, which together could bring $\sim 2$ GWe of zero-carbon power back to the grid by 2030 # Case Study: Crane Clean Energy Center Restart # Constellation # Microsoft The historic restart of Crane Clean Energy Center Unit 1 (closed in 2019 due to unfavorable economics) is a strong example of the accelerating need for 24/7 power demand to support the build-out of AI: The Deal: Microsoft signed a 20-year PPA to buy $100\%$ of the plant's \~835 MW output, providing the long- term revenue certainty needed to underwrite the estimated $2 billion restart cost The Driver: This move is directly fueled by Microsoft's need to power its rapidly expanding AI and cloud operations while meeting its ambitious goal to be carbon-negative by 2030 The Bottom Line: The Crane Clean Energy Center restart demonstrates that hyperscaler demand for reliable, zero-carbon energy has the potential to reverse what was once considered a permanent plant retirement # The Fast-Track Capacity Solution: Boosting Output From Existing Assets > Nuclear power uprates leverage technical upgrades to safely boost output, often tapping into plants' built-in capacity margins > Since the 1970s, NRC-approved uprates have added $\sim 8$ GW (equivalent to eight new reactors) at a fraction of the cost of new builds New technology advancements in turbine efficiency, control systems, and materials have made additional power uprates at existing facilities one of the most cost-effective ways to add new generation capacity to the grid, leveraging existing infrastructure while minimizing permitting and construction timelines, with a new cycle just beginning # Three Tiers of Incremental Capacity Expansion Typical uprates involve higher-enriched fuel, equipment upgrades, or thermal efficiency improvements with three classified types: 1. Measurement Uncertainty Uprates: Minor increases (typically $< 2\%$ ), achieved through more precise instrumentation 2. Stretch Uprates: Moderate increases ( $\sim$ 2-7%), usually involving modest equipment adjustments 3. Extended Uprates: Significant boosts (up to $\sim 20\%$ ), requiring major hardware replacements such as new turbines or generators Power Uptake Spend Timeline by Service # Innovating for Future Demand: SMR & Advanced Reactors Future growth will be driven by nuclear technology innovation with smaller, faster, and more flexible reactors # SMRs Make Nuclear Flexible and Scalable 70+ SMR designs are in development worldwide, with first deployments targeted before 2030 SMRs only require 5-10 acres per unit vs. hundreds for large GW reactors Factory fabrication could cut development times to 3-4 years vs. 10+ years for large-scale builds HALEU-fueled SMRs are designed for 8- to 10-year refueling cycles, extending operational uptime Pilot projects plan SMR use for industrial heat applications and hydrogen at less than $2/kg By 2050, SMRs could represent $20 - 30\%$ of global nuclear capacity # The SMR Advantage: Flexible, Scalable, and Investable # Solving the Capital Cost Challenge Factory-fabricated modular builds cut labor and execution risk Smaller units and phased deployment align capital with staged demand Shifts nuclear away from $10 billion or more "bet-the-company" megaprojects # Global Momentum 70+ SMR designs tracked globally, with first units online in China and Russia > Dozens more under construction or licensing in U.S., Canada, U.K., and France COP28 commitments explicitly include tripling nuclear capacity by 2050 # SMRs as a Cornerstone of New Nuclear Build-out DOE demonstration program and NRC licensing fast-track U.S. projects Early deployments target coal-to-nuclear conversions and industrial hubs SMRs positioned as backbone of U.S. new-build growth into the 2030s # The SMR Value Proposition Factory-built modules cut deployment time, lowering risk and unlocking scale efficiencies Load-following capability complements renewables and balances intermittent supply New use cases (hydrogen, desalination, data centers) extend nuclear's reach # SMR Projects are Spreading Nationwide... 15 Announced SMR and Advanced Reactor Projects # With Significant U.S. Investment Happening Now... Estimated 2025 U.S. SMR-Related Spend (\$B) Est. 2025 Spend And Rapid Global Investment Forecasted to 2050 Cumulative Global Investments in SMRs (\$B) # Nuclear Market Participants & M&A Activity # Market Participants # Select Recent M&A Transactions in the U.S. Nuclear Market <table><tr><td>Acquirer</td><td>Target</td><td>Date Closed</td><td>Transaction Overview</td></tr><tr><td>Blackstone</td><td>TXNM ENERGY</td><td>Closing</td><td>Blackstone Infrastructure agreed to acquire TXNM Energy, an energy holding company with regulated utilities in Texas and New Mexico, to provide long-term capital supporting the continued build-out of its grid and facilitating the clean energy transition</td></tr><tr><td>MIRION TECHNOLOGIES</td><td>Paragon</td><td>Closing</td><td>Mirion Technologies agreed to acquire Paragon Energy Solutions to expand its portfolio of highly engineered safety-related nuclear components and strengthen its position in both large-scale nuclear plants and the emerging SMR market</td></tr><tr><td>Surfside Acquisition Inc. (SPAC)</td><td>DEEP FISSION</td><td>3Q 2025</td><td>Deep Fission, a pioneering advanced nuclear energy company, completed a $30 million financing and a go-public reverse merger transaction with Surfside Acquisition Inc., making it a publicly reporting entity and funding the construction of its first pilot reactor</td></tr><tr><td>MIRION TECHNOLOGIES</td><td>CERTREC</td><td>3Q 2025</td><td>Mirion acquired Certrec, a leader in regulatory compliance and advanced digital applications for the nuclear market, to strengthen its position across nuclear power facilities and expand its digital ecosystem</td></tr><tr><td>AERO ENERGY</td><td>KRAKEN ENERGY</td><td>2Q 2025</td><td>Aero Energy, a Canadian uranium exploration company, and Kraken Energy, a U.S.-focused uranium developer, combined to create a premier North American uranium developer with a dual-jurisdiction portfolio of assets</td></tr><tr><td>PELICAN ENERGY HOLDINGS</td><td>MILLENNI TEK LLC</td><td>3Q 2024</td><td>Pelican Energy Partners, an energy-focused private equity firm, acquired MillenniumTek, a premier developer and manufacturer of advanced materials for the nuclear energy market, to support the company's expansion into domestic and international markets</td></tr><tr><td>VISTRA</td><td>energy harbor</td><td>1Q 2024</td><td>Vistra, an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, acquired Energy Harbor, creating a leading integrated zero-carbon generation and retail electricity platform with the addition of approximately 4,000 megawatts of nuclear generation and 1 million retail customers</td></tr><tr><td>Brookfield Cameco</td><td>Westinghouse</td><td>4Q 2023</td><td>Cameco and Brookfield acquired Westinghouse Electric Company, one of the world's largest nuclear services businesses, to create a powerful platform for strategic growth across the nuclear sector</td></tr><tr><td>OAKTREE</td><td>ENERCON</td><td>1Q 2023</td><td>Oaktree Capital Management acquired ENERCON Services, Inc. a leading engineering and environmental services firm, to provide additional resources that support the company's strategic vision and growth plans</td></tr><tr><td>Westinghouse</td><td>BHI energy</td><td>2Q 2022</td><td>Westinghouse Electric Company acquired BHI Energy from AE Industrial to expand its global capabilities and expertise in nuclear plant maintenance and modification services, industrial, power delivery, and complementary renewables, including solar, wind, and hydro power</td></tr></table> # Additional Resources # What We’re Reading This is a collection of research and insights focused on the nuclear power sector, highlighting the drivers reshaping today's market outlook. The Harris Williams team is closely tracking policy shifts such as the IRA and ADVANCE Act, the accelerating electrification of the grid, and the surging power needs of data centers. We are also analyzing the role of small modular reactors in opening new markets and enabling faster, lower-risk deployment. These readings underscore the convergence of policy, demand, technology, and decarbonization that is fueling nuclear's resurgence and creating meaningful investment opportunities in 2025 and beyond. The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy READ HERE "The report shows that with continued innovation, sufficient government support and new business models, small modular reactors can play a pivotal role in enabling a new era for nuclear energy." Key takeaway: Nuclear energy is experiencing a significant resurgence driven by energy security needs and climate goals. However, for this "new era" to materialize, the market must overcome substantial hurdles in policy, construction, and financing. Small Modular Reactors: Advances in SMR Developments READ HERE "Technology companies are already striking deals with SMR producers as they look for ways cleanly to power their energy-hungry data centers." Key takeaway: SMRs represent a pivotal shift in nuclear energy, opening the market to new customers previously excluded from conventional large-scale projects. Their smaller size and lower upfront costs make them a viable, affordable option for developing countries with smaller grids and, critically, for private industries with massive energy needs, such as technology firms powering data centers. Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 READ HERE "Relative to a global nuclear operational capacity of 377 GW(e) at the end of 2024, the low case projects an increase of about $50\%$ to 561 GW(e) by 2050. In the high case, global nuclear operational capacity is projected to increase to 2.6 times the 2024 capacity, reaching 992 GW(e) by 2050." Key takeaway: The IAEA projects a significant global expansion of nuclear power capacity by 2050, with potential growth ranging from a conservative $50\%$ increase to a more ambitious scenario where capacity multiplies by 2.6 times. # What We’re Reading Nuclear Power in the USA READ HERE "Swift and decisive action is required to jumpstart America's nuclear energy industrial base and ensure our national and economic security by increasing fuel availability and production, securing civil nuclear supply chains..." Key takeaway: The United States, the world's largest producer of nuclear power, is actively working to reverse decades of stagnation in the sector through significant policy and executive action. The Future of Nuclear Power READ HERE "For the first time in over a decade, load projections are suggesting significant growth in electricity demand due to a number of factors including expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) centers. ... In order to meet this demand, utilities need more clean, reliable power and nuclear is a preferred option." Key takeaway: A structural shift in power demand, driven by the voracious energy needs of AI and data centers, has fundamentally altered the strategic value of nuclear energy. After a decade of flat load growth, utilities are now confronting a demand surge that makes nuclear's 24/7 carbon-free power not just an option but a preferred solution to fuel the digital economy. Quiet Climate Action READ HERE "By putting a price on carbon in the business through carbon credits, companies pursuing carbon neutrality and taking action now are almost twice (1.7x) as likely to have near term Science Based Targets across the entire value chain. ... than companies that are not carbon neutral or do not plan to be by 2030." Key takeaway: Despite external pressures like economic crises and "ESG backlash," the world's largest companies are quietly deepening their climate commitments. The percentage of Fortune Global 500 firms with a net-zero target continues to rise, hitting $45\%$ this year. # Our Team The nuclear market is experiencing renewed momentum driven by energy security priorities, government support, technological advancement, and growing recognition of nuclear's role in decarbonization. Our Energy, Power & Infrastructure Group partners with investors and company leaders worldwide to help them navigate the M&A and private capital markets. 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