20150814-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_453kb

Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US rate hike, its implications on global markets, and the effects on the Hong Kong (HK) and Chinese markets, including the A-shares and H-shares. It also provides research highlights and upcoming economic data events.

Main Points

• US Rate Hike Impact:

  • The first US rate hike in over nine years is expected to occur in September, marking a significant shift in monetary policy.
  • Rate hikes typically cause upward pressure on the USD, leading to capital inflows into the US and potentially influencing global capital flows.
  • Historically, the S&P 500 has underperformed in the short term (250 days) after rate hikes, but has shown strong growth over 500 days.
  • The rate hike may lead to short-term volatility in global equities and capital flows, with a potential for a cyclical bear market as it occurs later in the bull run.
  • A flattening of the US yield curve is likely, though the process may be slower due to global liquidity from QE programs.

• Impact on Hong Kong Market:

  • The HK market is influenced by China's economic fundamentals but is also tied to the USD due to the currency peg.
  • The historical impact of US rate hikes on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) is inconclusive.
  • The HK housing market may be negatively affected by rising interest rates, both on the demand and supply sides.

• RMB Exchange Rate and Domestic Industries:

  • RMB devaluation benefits mid to low-end manufacturing and labor-intensive industries, while negatively affecting the tertiary sector and import-dependent industries like petroleum and chemical.
  • The central parity rate is influenced by three factors: the latest closing price, supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, and changes in major international exchange rates.
  • A significant increase in market turnover indicates potential central bank intervention to stabilize the exchange rate.
  • The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile, with a general range of 6.3-6.5.

• Exchange Rate and Asset Prices:

  • Exchange rate fluctuations can impact asset prices, with liquidity being a key factor.
  • Central banks may step in to stabilize the foreign exchange market, which could tighten liquidity.
  • The real impact of exchange rate changes on the real economy is long-term and may take a few months to materialize.

Key Information

• Rate Hike Timing: The first rate hike is expected in September, marking a return to tightening monetary policy after years of quantitative easing.
• Capital Flows: The US is expected to see increased capital inflows, while emerging economies may face capital outflows.
• HK Market Dynamics: HK's monetary policy and capital flow are influenced by the USD, though the impact on the HSI is not clear.
• Industry Impact: RMB devaluation affects different industries differently, with some benefiting and others suffering.
• Market Volatility: The rate hike is expected to cause volatility in the short term, which may create both risks and opportunities.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Company Events (August 14, 2015)

Research Coverage List (August 14, 2015)

Other Sectors

• Technology, Media & Telecom:

  • China Telecom: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$5.26, % Upside: 23, P/E 2015E: 14.3
  • China Unicom: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$11.57, % Upside: 11, P/E 2015E: 13.9
  • China Mobile: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$105.0, % Upside: 6, P/E 2015E: 13.5
  • Wisdom: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$7.0, % Upside: 74, P/E 2015E: 17.9
  • NetDragon: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$41.3, % Upside: 100, P/E 2015E: 550.9
  • Cheetah Mobile: BUY, 12-month TP: US$43.6, % Upside: 93, P/E 2015E: N.A.
  • 58.com: BUY, 12-month TP: US$93.0, % Upside: 84, P/E 2015E: N.A.
  • Cowell: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$11.08, % Upside: 129, P/E 2015E: 6.9
  • AAC Technologies: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$42.67, % Upside: 1, P/E 2015E: 14.9
  • Coolpad: SELL, 12-month TP: HK$1.05, % Upside: -38, P/E 2015E: 14.0
  • Sunny Optical: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$16.21, % Upside: 8, P/E 2015E: 15.6
  • TCL Comm: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$10.42, % Upside: 85, P/E 2015E: 4.9
  • PAX Global: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$13.4, % Upside: 57, P/E 2015E: 16.8
  • Truly: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$2.76, % Upside: 22, P/E 2015E: 5.5
  • Lenovo Group: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$14.23, % Upside: 85, P/E 2015E: 9.9

• Textile & Garment:

  • China Lilang: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$9.3, % Upside: 17, P/E 2015E: 11.8
  • Xstep International: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$4.09, % Upside: 28, P/E 2015E: 10.3
  • Trinity: SELL, 12-month TP: HK$1.0, % Upside: -12, P/E 2015E: N.A.
  • I.T: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$3.64, % Upside: 58, P/E 2015E: 9.6

• Retail:

  • Sinomax: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$1.49, % Upside: 28, P/E 2015E: 7.7
  • Chow Tai Fook: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$7.87, % Upside: 4, P/E 2015E: 13.8
  • Cosmo Lady: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$6.97, % Upside: -14, P/E 2015E: 21.6
  • Luk Fook Holdings: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$21.55, % Upside: -2, P/E 2015E: 8.0
  • Haier Electronics: NEUTRAL, 12-month TP: HK$22.1, % Upside: 25, P/E 2015E: 13.7
  • Redstar Macalline: BUY, 12-month TP: HK$14.7, % Upside: 34, P/E 2015E: 10.4

The document concludes that the upcoming US rate hike is likely to cause short-term volatility, with both risks and opportunities emerging during the rate hike cycle. The HK market's response is less direct and may be influenced by broader economic conditions and exchange rate movements.