20150814-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 14 August 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of regional markets and stocks across China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, focusing on earnings reports, sector performance, investment recommendations, and market valuations. It includes BUY and SELL ratings, target prices, and key assumptions for the financial outlook of these markets and specific companies.

Main Points and Key Information

China

1H15 Results Preview: Expected to show weakening revenue growth, with net interest income growth limited by narrowing NIMs. Asset quality remains a key concern, with a higher chance of NPL formation surprises.
Key Bank Recommendations:
- ICBC is recommended to BUY due to better business mix and near trough valuation.
- Bank BJB and Maybank are also recommended to BUY.
Valuation Data:
- ICBC trades at 0.8x 2016F P/B, near its historical trough.
- Market Weight is maintained for the sector.

Indonesia

JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) is currently trading at -2SD to historical PB, suggesting undervaluation.
Upgrade to BUY: The analyst recommends upgrading the Indonesian market to BUY based on the potential rebound after a major correction.
Top BUY Stocks:
- AKRA, WSKT, ROTI, UNTR
Key Sectors:
- Consumer and Construction sectors are highlighted for strong potential.
- US dollar earners such as UNTR are recommended due to currency benefits.
New JCI Target: Revised to 5,000 for December 2015.

Malaysia

Guinness Anchor (GAB) is upgraded to BUY after a 10% fall in share price from July's peak. The company is expected to deliver yoy earnings growth in 4QFY15 and has strong sales momentum in FY16.
MLK MK (Malakoff Corporation) is recommended to BUY with a target price of RM2.05.
2Q15 Results Preview: Expect sequentially higher opex to meet RM100m quarterly earnings.

Singapore

Sector Focus: Developers, with CDL, First Resources, Genting Singapore, Pacific Radiance, and Singapore Telecommunications all recommended to BUY.
Key Highlights:
- CDL is upgraded to BUY with a target price of S$3.30.
- First Resources reported net profit of $30.3m, within expectations, supported by upstream operations.
- Genting Singapore has core EBITDA below expectations but expects modest quarterly improvements.
- Pacific Radiance is in the black despite a challenging environment, trading at a cyclical trough.
- Singapore Telecommunications is affected by weak Australian dollar and less contribution from Bharti.

Thailand

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) is recommended to BUY, with flat earnings despite increasing sales. Expected to grow in the high season.
Thai Airways Holding is sold due to below expectations and worsening cash burn.
E for L Aim (EFORL) is recommended to BUY to resume growth momentum after one-time expenses.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17408.3	0.0	-0.1	-3.2	-2.3
S&P 500	2083.4	-0.1	-0.0	-0.8	1.2
FTSE 100	6568.3	-0.0	-2.6	-2.5	0.0
AS30	5389.0	-0.1	-3.8	-3.1	0.0
CSI 300	4075.5	1.5	6.4	-0.9	15.3
FSSTI	3091.8	1.0	-3.1	-6.8	-8.1
HSI	24018.8	0.4	-1.5	-4.4	1.8
JCI	4584.3	2.3	-4.6	-6.5	-12.3
KLCI	1621.6	0.7	-4.3	-5.8	-7.9
Nikkei 225	20595.6	1.0	-0.3	1.0	18.0
SET	1404.2	-0.3	-2.2	-5.7	-6.2
TWSE	8311.7	0.3	-1.6	-8.1	-10.7

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Target Price	Share Price	Potential Upside
ICBC	1398 HK	7.80	5.34	48.6%
Bank BJB	BJR IJ	1,300.00	770.00	68.8%
CapitaLand	CAPL SP	4.08	3.18	28.3%
DBS	DBS SP	25.12	19.02	32.1%
PTT	PTT TB	410.00	300.00	36.7%

Key Assumptions

GDP Growth:
- China: 7.7% (2014), 7.2% (2015), 7.0% (2016)
- Indonesia: 5.0% (2015), 5.0% (2016)
- Singapore: 2.9% (2015), 2.9% (2016)
- Malaysia: 5.0% (2015), 5.0% (2016)
- Thailand: 2.7% (2015), 2.7% (2016)
Oil Prices:
- Brent (Average): 99.45 (2014), 61 (2015), 72 (2016)
CPO (Crude Palm Oil):
- CPO (US$/mt): 722 (2014), 765 (2015), 788 (2016)

Corporate Events

Phoenix Healthcare Group Roadshow: Singapore, 17–18 Aug
Yoma Strategic Group Meeting: Singapore, 18 Aug
Tongda Luncheon: Hong Kong, 24 Aug
CIFI Holdings Roadshow: Singapore (24 Aug), Kuala Lumpur (25–26 Aug)
Overseas Education New Campus Site Visit: Singapore, 28 Aug

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the undervaluation of several markets and stocks, particularly in Indonesia and Singapore, with a focus on rebound potential and dividend yields. It highlights sector-specific performance, such as weakening revenue growth in Chinese banking, construction bookings growth in Indonesia, and dividend potential in Malaysia. Investors are advised to focus on asset quality, cost control, and dividend yields to make informed decisions.