20240618-天风证券-政策与大类资产配置周观察_政策预期差再度成为资产定价锚_22页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary

Policy Overview

Domestic: China’s focus on building a modern financial system involves strengthening financial institutions, promoting market-based pricing, and improving real estate policies. Recent initiatives include financial reforms, enhanced monitoring, and measures to support economic stability.
International: The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have delayed interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation, impacting global markets.

Market Analysis

Equities: A stocks experienced slight declines in June, while the创业板 saw a small rebound, reflecting mixed sentiment amid economic uncertainty.
Fixed Income: DR007 fluctuated around 1.8%, and long-term bonds saw continued issuance, supporting liquidity but raising risks such as credit default.
Commodities: Precious metals like gold fell due to hawkish Fed policy, while energy and industrial metals showed mixed performance.
Forex: The USD index rose above 105, while CNY weakened, reflecting divergent monetary policies between the U.S. and Europe.

Asset Allocation

Short-term: Moderately optimistic on equities, focus on high-dividend sectors and rate-sensitive bonds; avoid credit risks and currency depreciation.
Long-term: Expect equities to rebound from the bottom soon, tied to economic recovery and new cycles.

Risk Factors