联合国贸易发展委员会-区域全面经济伙伴关系及其贸易效应（英）-2021.12-16页_28mb

RCEP: A New Centre of Gravity for Global Trade

Core Content

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement that entered into force on 1 January 2022, forming the world's largest trading bloc. It includes 15 East Asian and Pacific nations, representing around 30% of global GDP and 13% of global trade in goods. The agreement aims to enhance economic integration and trade flows within the region through tariff concessions and trade facilitation measures.

Main Points

• Tariff Concessions: RCEP is expected to eliminate 90% of tariffs on goods traded within the bloc, with most reductions implemented over a 20-year period. Some sectors, such as agriculture and automotive, may remain protected.
• Trade Effects: The agreement is projected to increase intra-RCEP trade by approximately US$42 billion, or about 2% of current trade levels. This is driven by trade creation (US$17 billion) and trade diversion (US$25 billion).
• Trade Diversion: Trade diversion effects are particularly significant for larger economies like Japan, which is expected to see an increase in exports of about US$20 billion. This is due to the redirection of trade from non-RCEP members to RCEP members.
• Trade Creation: Smaller RCEP members, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, benefit more from trade creation, as they already had high levels of tariff liberalization.
• Sectoral Impact:
  • Agriculture is the most protected sector, with only 75% of tariff lines at zero tariffs.
  • Manufacturing sees the largest gains, with an estimated US$30 billion increase in trade.
  • Natural resources have smaller trade effects due to already low tariffs.
• Regional Heterogeneity: There is significant variation in tariff levels and liberalization progress among RCEP members. ASEAN members and Australia, New Zealand, Singapore already have high levels of tariff liberalization, while China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea still have relatively high tariffs.
• Non-RCEP Members: The trade diversion effects of RCEP are expected to cause export losses for non-member countries, especially Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, where the impact is more significant in percentage terms. The European Union, United States, and Hong Kong face export losses in value terms, but these are relatively small compared to their total exports.

Key Information

• RCEP's Economic Impact: The agreement is expected to boost intra-regional exports by nearly US$42 billion, contributing to economic efficiency and welfare.
• Negotiation Patterns: The tariff concessions reflect cooperation among RCEP members, particularly in non-sensitive sectors, with trade creation and diversion being the two main forces behind the trade gains.
• Implications for New Members: Potential new members may face limited opportunities for further tariff reductions, as many concessions are already aligned with existing member interests.
• Trade Resilience: RCEP is seen as a resilient trading bloc, especially in the context of the pandemic, with trade within agreements showing greater stability compared to global trade.

Conclusion

RCEP represents a major shift in global trade dynamics, acting as a new centre of gravity for international trade. Despite trade diversion effects that may negatively impact some members, the overall gains are substantial, and the long-term benefits of integration, including foreign direct investment, technology sharing, and structural transformation, are expected to outweigh initial challenges. The trade resilience of RCEP in the face of global disruptions further reinforces its importance in shaping the future of regional and global trade.