2021-12-23-联合国贸易发展委员会-区域全面经济伙伴关系及其贸易效应（英）_16页_29mb

RCEP Summary: A New Centre of Gravity for Global Trade

Core Content

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement that entered into force on 1 January 2022. It includes 15 East Asian and Pacific nations, representing around 30% of global GDP and forming the world's largest trading bloc in terms of economic size. The agreement aims to enhance regional economic integration through significant tariff concessions and trade facilitation measures.

Main Points

• Tariff Concessions: RCEP is expected to eliminate 90% of tariffs on goods traded within the bloc, with a 20-year implementation period. Some tariffs will be abolished immediately, while others will be gradually reduced.
• Trade Effects: The agreement is projected to boost intraregional exports by approximately US$42 billion, or about 2% of the total trade volume. This is driven by a combination of trade creation (US$17 billion) and trade diversion (US$25 billion).
• Economic Heterogeneity: There is significant variation in trade flows and tariff levels among RCEP members. Larger economies like China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have lower existing tariffs, while smaller members such as Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam, and Lao People's Democratic Republic are more reliant on RCEP trade.
• Sectoral Differences: Tariff concessions are more pronounced in manufacturing, with about US$30 billion in gains expected. Agriculture remains the most protected sector, with only 75% of tariff lines at zero tariffs, and high average tariffs on uncommitted lines.
• Trade Diversion: The agreement is expected to redirect trade from non-member countries to RCEP members, with the most significant effects observed in the European Union, the United States, and other regional economies.
• Benefits for Members: While some members may experience initial negative trade diversion effects, the overall gains from RCEP are expected to outweigh these losses. The benefits include increased trade, foreign direct investment, and structural economic transformation.
• Implications for New Members: Potential new members may find limited room for negotiation as existing members have already made significant concessions, particularly in sectors of interest to them.

Key Information

• RCEP's Impact on Trade:
  • Intra-RCEP trade in 2019 was about US$2.3 trillion, accounting for 50% of total trade among members.
  • The agreement is expected to increase trade by nearly 2%, or US$42 billion, through a mix of trade creation and trade diversion.
• Tariff Reductions:
  • The largest share of tariff lines for reduction is with the Republic of Korea, China, and Japan.
  • Average tariff concessions range from 7 to 10 percentage points.
  • Uncommitted tariff lines remain high, especially in agriculture for the Republic of Korea.
• Sectoral Analysis:
  • Agriculture: Expected to gain about US$10 billion, mainly due to trade diversion.
  • Manufacturing: Expected to gain about US$29 billion, with trade diversion accounting for 60% of the gains.
  • Natural Resources: Gains are smaller due to typically lower tariffs.
• Non-Member Impact:
  • Non-RCEP members, particularly the European Union and the United States, face export losses due to trade diversion.
  • Countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka experience higher percentage losses compared to absolute value losses.
• Economic Integration:
  • RCEP is expected to strengthen economic integration and provide trade resilience, especially in the context of the pandemic.
  • Trade within RCEP has shown greater resilience against global trade downturns, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for the bloc.

Conclusion

RCEP is anticipated to become a new centre of gravity for global trade, with significant benefits for its member countries. Despite initial trade diversion effects, the overall economic gains are expected to be substantial. The agreement also enhances trade resilience and supports long-term regional economic development.